Professor John Boylan

Professor, Head Of Department

PhD Supervision Interests

I am interested in taking on PhDs in Supply Chain Forecasting. I would particularly welcome enquiries relating to intermittent demand forecasting, hierarchical forecasting and seasonal forecasting.

Multiplicative State-Space Models for Intermittent Time Series
Svetunkov, I., Boylan, J.E. 7/11/2017 Lancaster : Lancaster University Management School, 43 p.
Working paper

Supply chain forecasting when information is not shared
Ali, M., Babai, M., Boylan, J., Syntetos, A. 1/08/2017 In: European Journal of Operational Research. 260, 3, p. 984-994. 11 p.
Journal article

OR in Spare Parts Management: A Review
Hu, Q., Boylan, J.E., Chen, H., Labib, A. 29/07/2017 In: European Journal of Operational Research.
Journal article

On the performance of overlapping and non-overlapping temporal demand aggregation approaches
Boylan, J.E., Babai, M.Z. 11/2016 In: International Journal of Production Economics. 181, Part A, p. 136-144. 9 p.
Journal article

Reduction of the value of information sharing as demand becomes strongly auto-correlated
Babai, M.Z., Boylan, J.E., Syntetos, A.A., Ali, M.M. 11/2016 In: International Journal of Production Economics. 181 , Part A, p. 130-135. 6 p.
Journal article

Supply chain forecasting: theory, practice, their gap and the future
Syntetos, A., Babai, Z., Boylan, J.E., Kolassa, S., Nikolopoulos, K. 1/07/2016 In: European Journal of Operational Research. 252, 1, p. 1-26. 26 p.
Journal article

Reproducibility
Boylan, J.E. 04/2016 In: IMA Journal of Management Mathematics. 27, 2, 2 p.
Editorial

Reproducibility in forecasting research
Boylan, J., Goodwin, P., Mohammadipour, M., Syntetos, A. 01/2015 In: International Journal of Forecasting. 31, 1, p. 79-90. 12 p.
Journal article

Toward a more precise definition of forecastability
Boylan, J. 2015 In: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. p. 34-40. 7 p.
Journal article

Formation of seasonal groups and application of seasonal indices
Boylan, J., Chen, H., Mohammadipour, M., Syntetos, A. 1/02/2014 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 65, 2, p. 227-241. 15 p.
Journal article

Water leakage forecasting: the application of a modified fuzzy evolving algorithm
Birek, L., Petrovic, D., Boylan, J. 1/01/2014 In: Applied Soft Computing. 14, Part B, p. 305-315. 11 p.
Journal article

On the value of sharing demand information in supply chains (OR56 Annual Conference – Keynote Papers)
Ali, M.M., Boylan, J. 2014
Conference paper

Forecasting and inventory performance in a two-stage supply chain with ARIMA(0,1,1) demand: theory and empirical analysis
Babai, M.Z., Ali, M.M., Boylan, J., Syntetos, A.A. 1/06/2013 In: International Journal of Production Economics. 143, 2, p. 463-471. 9 p.
Journal article

Generalised estimators for seasonal forecasting by combining grouping with shrinkage approaches
Zhang, K., Chen, H., Boylan, J., Scarf, P. 1/03/2013 In: Journal of Forecasting. 32, 2, p. 137-150. 14 p.
Journal article

Forecast horizon aggregation in integer autoregressive moving average (INARMA) models
Mohammadipour, M., Boylan, J. 1/12/2012 In: Omega: The International Journal of Management Science. 40, 6, p. 703-712. 10 p.
Journal article

Forecast errors and inventory performance under forecast information sharing
Ali, M.M., Boylan, J., Syntetos, A.A. 1/10/2012 In: International Journal of Forecasting. 28, 4, p. 830-841.
Journal article

On the effect of non-optimal forecasting methods on supply chain downstream demand
Ali, M.M., Boylan, J. 1/01/2012 In: IMA Journal of Management Mathematics. 23, 1, p. 81-98. 17 p.
Journal article

The application of product-group seasonal indexes to individual products
Mohammadipour, M., Boylan, J., Syntetos, A. 2012 In: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 26, p. 20-26. 7 p.
Journal article

On the interaction between forecasting and stock control: the case of non-stationary demand
Strijbosch, L.W., Syntetos, A.A., Boylan, J., Janssen, E. 1/09/2011 In: International Journal of Production Economics. 133, 1, p. 470-480. 11 p.
Journal article

Judgement and supply chain dynamics
Syntetos, A.A., Georgantzas, N.C., Boylan, J., Dangerfield, B.C. 1/06/2011 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 62, 6, p. 1138-1158. 21 p.
Journal article

Decision trees for forecasting trended demand: estimation and statistical properties
Syntetos, A.A., Boylan, J. 24/03/2011 In: Service parts management. London : Springer London p. 53-87. 14 p. ISBN: 9780857290380. Electronic ISBN: 9780857290397.
Chapter

Intermittent demand: estimation and statistical properties
Syntetos, A.A., Boylan, J. 24/03/2011 In: Service parts management. London : Springer London p. 1-30. 31 p. ISBN: 9780857290380. Electronic ISBN: 9780857290397.
Chapter

Feasibility principles for Downstream Demand Inference in supply chains
Ali, M.M., Boylan, J. 1/03/2011 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 62, 3, p. 474-482. 9 p.
Journal article

A “Softer” approach to the measurement of forecast accuracy
Boylan, J. 2011 In: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 23, p. 16-20. 5 p.
Journal article

An aggregate–disaggregate intermittent demand approach (ADIDA) to forecasting: an empirical proposition and analysis
Nikolopoulos, K., Syntetos, A., Boylan, J., Petropoulos, F., Assimakopoulos, V. 2011 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 62, 3, p. 544-554. 11 p.
Journal article

Classification for forecasting and inventory
Syntetos, A., Boylan, J., Teunter, R. 2011 In: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 20, p. 12-17. 6 p.
Journal article

On the variance of intermittent demand estimates
Syntetos, A.A., Boylan, J. 1/12/2010 In: International Journal of Production Economics. 128, 2, p. 546-555. 10 p.
Journal article

Spare parts management: a review of forecasting research and extensions
Boylan, J., Syntetos, A.A. 1/07/2010 In: IMA Journal of Management Mathematics. 21, 3, p. 227-237. 11 p.
Journal article

Judging the judges through accuracy-implication metrics: the case of inventory forecasting
Syntetos, A.A., Nikolopoulos, K., Boylan, J. 1/01/2010 In: International Journal of Forecasting. 26, 1, p. 134-143. 10 p.
Journal article

Choosing levels of aggregation for supply chain forecasts
Boylan, J. 2010 In: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 18, p. 9-13. 10 p.
Journal article

The value of forecast information sharing in the supply chain
Ali, M.M., Boylan, J. 2010 In: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 18, p. 14-18. 5 p.
Journal article

Forecasting for inventory planning: a 50-year review
Syntetos, A.A., Boylan, J., Disney, S.M. 11/02/2009 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 60, p. S149--S160. 12 p.
Journal article

The effect of correlation between demands on hierarchical forecasting
Chen, H., Boylan, J. 2009 In: Advances in business and management forecasting. Emerald p. 173-188. 16 p.
Chapter

The effects of integrating management judgement into intermittent demand forecasts
Syntetos, A.A., Nikolopoulos, K., Boylan, J., Fildes, R., Goodwin, P. 2009 In: International Journal of Production Economics. 118, 1, p. 72-81. 10 p.
Journal article

Empirical evidence on individual, group and shrinkage seasonal indices
Chen, H., Boylan, J. 1/07/2008 In: International Journal of Forecasting. 24, 3, p. 525-534. 10 p.
Journal article

Classification for forecasting and stock control: a case study
Boylan, J., Syntetos, A.A., Karakostas, G.C. 1/04/2008 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 59, 4, p. 473-481. 9 p.
Journal article

Characterizing the frequency of orders received by a stockist
Shale, E.A., Boylan, J.E., Johnston, F.R. 21/01/2008 In: IMA Journal of Management Mathematics. 19, 2, p. 137-143. 7 p.
Journal article

Demand forecasting adjustments for service-level achievement
Syntetos, A.A., Boylan, J. 2008 In: IMA Journal of Management Mathematics. 19, 2, p. 175-192. 17 p.
Journal article

Forecasting for inventory management of service parts
Boylan, J., Syntetos, A.A. 2008 In: Complex system maintenance handbook. Springer p. 479-508. 30 p. ISBN: 9781848000100.
Chapter

Use of individual and group seasonal indices in subaggregate demand forecasting
Chen, H., Boylan, J. 1/12/2007 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 58, 12, p. 1660-1671. 12 p.
Journal article

The accuracy of a modified Croston procedure
Boylan, J., Syntetos, A.A. 1/06/2007 In: International Journal of Production Economics. 107, 2, p. 511-517. 7 p.
Journal article

Key assumptions in calculating the Cost of Forecast Error. A commentary on Peter Catt’s article, assessing the Cost of Forecast Error, in Issue 7 of Foresight
Boylan, J. 2007 In: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 8, p. 22-24. 3 p.
Journal article

Spare parts management: Forecasting Research and Extensions
Boylan, J., Syntetos, A.A. 2007 In: OR49 keynote papers 2007. Operational Research Society ISBN: 0903440407, 9780903440400.
Chapter

Viewpoint: reply to Kostenko and Hyndman
Syntetos, A.A., Boylan, J., Croston, J.D. 1/10/2006 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 57, 10, p. 1257-1258. 2 p.
Journal article

On the stock control performance of intermittent demand estimators
Syntetos, A.A., Boylan, J. 1/09/2006 In: International Journal of Production Economics. 103, 1, p. 36-47. 12 p.
Journal article

Smoothing and adjustments of demand forecasts for inventory control
Syntetos, A.A., Boylan, J. 17/05/2006
Other

Forecasting for intermittent demand: the estimation of an unbiased average
Shale, E.A., Boylan, J., Johnston, F.R. 1/05/2006 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 57, 5, p. 588-592. 5 p.
Journal article

Comments on the attribution of an intermittent demand estimator
Syntetos, A.A., Boylan, J. 1/01/2006 In: International Journal of Forecasting. 22, 1, p. 201-201. 1 p.
Journal article

Accuracy and accuracy-implication metrics for intermittent demand
Boylan, J., Syntetos, A. 2006 In: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 4, p. 39-42. 4 p.
Journal article

On the categorization of demand patterns
Syntetos, A.A., Boylan, J., Croston, J.D. 1/05/2005 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 56, 5, p. 495-503. 9 p.
Journal article

The accuracy of intermittent demand estimates
Syntetos, A.A., Boylan, J. 1/04/2005 In: International Journal of Forecasting. 21, 2, p. 303-314. 12 p.
Journal article

Intermittent and lumpy demand: the forecasting challenge
Boylan, J. 2005 In: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 1, p. 36-42. 7 p.
Journal article

On the development of theory-informed operationalised definitions of demand patterns
Syntetos, A.A., Boylan, J. 2005 In: Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Intelligent Management Systems in Operations, Salford. . Operational Research Society p. 238-247. 10 p. ISBN: 0903440342.
Chapter

Demand categorisation for forecasting and stock control
Syntetos, A.A., Boylan, J. 2004 In: Global challenges in manufacturing. Biassono : Grafica Sovico p. 801-809. 9 p.
Paper

Inventory management for spare parts
Syntetos, A.A., Boylan, J. 2004 In: Proceedings of the 2nd World Conference on POM and 15th Annual POM Conference. 32 p.
Paper

An examination of the size of orders from customers, their characterisation and the implications for inventory control of slow moving items
Johnston, F.R., Boylan, J., Shale, E.A. 1/08/2003 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 54, 8, p. 833-837. 5 p.
Journal article

Optimality and robustness of combinations of moving averages
Boylan, J., Johnston, F.R. 1/01/2003 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 54, 1, p. 109-115. 7 p.
Journal article

Intermittent demand forecasting: size-interval methods based on averaging and smoothing
Boylan, J. 2003 In: Proceedings of the International Conference on Quantitative Methods in Industry and Commerce, Athens, Greece. p. 87-96. 10 p.
Paper

On the categorisation of demand patterns
Boylan, J., Syntetos, A.A., Croston, J.D. 2003 In: Proceedings of the International Conference on Quantitative Methods in Industry and Commerce, Athens, Greece. p. 534-543. 20 p.
Paper

On the bias of intermittent demand estimates
Syntetos, A.A., Boylan, J. 1/05/2001 In: International Journal of Production Economics. 71, 1-3, p. 457-466. 10 p.
Journal article

Introducing forecasting and monitoring methods to an SME: the role of Soft Systems Methodology
Boylan, J., Willams , M.A. 2001 In: Mixed-mode modelling . Kluwer ISBN: 0792371518.
Chapter