Condensed Matter Seminar
Friday 22 June 2018, 3:00pm to 4:00pm
Venue
Physics C036 - View MapOpen to
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Registration not required - just turn upEvent Details
A unified nonlinear stochastic time-series analysis for climate science
Earth's orbit and axial tilt imprint a strong seasonal cycle on climatological data. Climate variability is typically viewed in terms of fluctuations in the seasonal cycle induced by higher frequency processes. We can interpret this as a competition between the orbitally enforced monthly stability and the fluctuations/noise induced by weather. Here we introduce a new time-series method that determines these contributions from monthly-averaged data. We find that the spatio-temporal distribution of the monthly stability and the magnitude of the noise reveal key fingerprints of several important climate phenomena, including the evolution of the Arctic sea ice cover, the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Nio and the Indian Dipole Mode. In analogy with the classical destabilising influence of the ice-albedo feedback on summertime sea ice, we find that during some time interval of the season a destabilising process operates in all of these climate phenomena. The interaction between the destabilisation and the accumulation of noise, which we term the memory effect, underlies phase locking to the seasonal cycle and the statistical nature of seasonal predictability.
Speaker
Dr. Woosok Moon
Nordic Institute for Theoretical Physics (NORDITA)
Contact Details
Name | Dr Sergey Kafanov |
Telephone number |
+44 1524 593595 |