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Friday 13 April 2018, 1:30pm to 5:00pm
This event will bring together well-known practitioners and academics to present and discuss new insights and approaches to forecasting using hierarchies.
This event will explore new insights and approaches to forecasting using hierarchies. Many business forecasting problems have hierarchical structures. Companies sell products and services that naturally fall within hierarchies, for example, different package sizes, product features, market segments, etc. Recognising the hierarchical nature of such items can bring benefits in terms of forecast accuracy and decision making, aligning forecasts of items at different levels of the hierarchy. This event will bring together well-known practitioners and academics to present and discuss new insights and approaches to forecasting using hierarchies.
Speaker: Dr Nikolaos Kourentzes (Senior Lecturer, Lancaster University Management School)
Abstract: This session will look into the opportunities that hierarchical forecasting brings in improving forecast accuracy, planning and improving decision making. Nikos will provide an overview of the established approaches in hierarchical forecasting, as well as recent innovations and the benefits they offer. The session will offer a high-level view of the methodologies involved and explore aspects of implementation in existing systems. Nikos, with the centre’s research network, has been at the forefront of advancing the methodological aspects of hierarchical forecasting, offering a unique view of the latest advances.
Speaker: Professor Kostas Nikolopoulos (Professor of Business Analytics, Bangor Business School)
Abstract: Kostas will present two cases from his research with industry, demonstrating the challenges and gains in using hierarchical forecasting in practice. The first case study is looking at an insurance application, while the second one is bringing together spatiotemporal hierarchies to support preparation and response to major earthquakes. This case study focuses on mitigating risks from rare events, the so-called Black Swans. Kostas will draw on his extensive experience from practice to highlight the potential benefits that hierarchical forecasting can bring for organisations.
The closing session will be a panel of practitioners, looking at the challenges and usefulness of hierarchical forecasting, bringing their perspectives from practice. This session will facilitate a wider discussion with the audience to identify and address practical questions and potential hurdles in implementing forecasting innovations in companies, as well as strengthening the ties of the industry with the research community.
Dr. Nikos Kourentzes
Management Science, Lancaster University
Prof. Kostas Nikolopoulos
Bangor Business School
+44 1524 510906