Statistics Forum: Jon Tawn

Jon Tawn

Thursday 08 May 2014, 1200-1300
A54, Postgraduate Statistics Centre Lecture Theatre

Extreme Value Theory: An Impact Case Study for International Shipping Standards

Research on extreme value methods proved critical in determining the conclusions of the UK High Court's investigation of the sinking of the M.V. Derbyshire (the UK's largest ship lost at sea) and identified that design standards for hatch covers of ocean-going carriers needed to be increased by 35%. This new level was then set as a new worldwide mandatory standard.

This talk describes my involvement in this work starting with the estimation of the probability of the M.V. Derbyshire having sunk from a structural failure, resulting from large wave impacts on the ship, for each of a range of possible sea-state and vessel conditions; through experiences of presenting evidence to the High Court; and subsequent work aimed at setting new design standards for ocean-going carriers.