STOR-i Seminar: Roberto Szechtman

Professor Roberto Szechtman, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey

Friday 25 October 2013, 1000-1130
A54, Postgraduate Statistics Centre Lecture Theatre

Modeling Insurgency Situations

Most recent military conflicts (e.g., Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and Syria) differ from traditional force-on-force engagements, taking the form of an asymmetrical counterinsurgency situation, where the civilian population plays a major active role. Legacy warfare and combat models such as Lanchester attrition models do not capture this "social" aspect of military conflicts and therefore must be modified. Following a short and general introduction on modeling armed conflicts, the talk will review some recent papers on modeling insurgencies and their interplay with population behavior. These papers present dynamic and rational choice models, which highlight important aspects of insurgency scenarios and are utilized for gaining insights about the possible outcomes of such conflicts.