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Tom Flowerdew

Tom Flowerdew

Research Student

Fylde College
Lancaster University
Bailrigg
Lancaster
United Kingdom
LA1 4YF

Thesis Title

Betting Markets and Strategies

Thesis Outline

When given an edge when gambling on sporting events, or investing on the stock market, a question arises: 'What is the optimal way to increase my wealth, given some measure of  risk and reward?' One way to define this measure is to optimise the logarithm of an investor's terminal wealth, then letting this terminal time to tend towards infinity. This analysis results in the Kelly criterion, for which the amount of money invested is proportional to the investor's current wealth and the magnitude of the edge.

 

My PhD is concerned with expanding the original theory, and subsequent literature in order to take account of more complex factors. As an example, there has already been developments where the probability of a sporting event being a success is taken to be a random variable, with its probability distribution being learned about as time passes. 

 

The PhD is in partnership with ATASS Sports

Web Links

My personal website

http://www.lancs.ac.uk/~flowerdt/