Dr Paul Smith

Senior Research Associate

Research Overview

I am a hydrologist and statistician with research interests in two main areas: flooding and the representation of epistemic uncertainties in forecasting. My research in flooding focuses on the use of hydrologically interpretable time series models for flood forecasting. Recent research has focused on the automated construction of such models; their use in tidally forced situation and coupled hydro-meteorological forecasting of flash floods.

I am currently employed as part of the CREDIBLE consortia funded by the NERC PURE initiative. My remit is to investigate the role and representation of epistemic uncertainties in assessing risks associated with natural hazards.

Data-based mechanistic modelling of tidally affected river reaches for flood warning purposes: an example on the River Dee, UK
Smith, P., Beven, K., Horsburgh, K. 01/2013 In: QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY. 139, 671, p. 340-349. 10 p.
Journal article

A Data Based Mechanistic real-time flood forecasting module for NFFS FEWS: DBM real-time flood forecasting
Leedal, D., Weerts, A.H., Smith, P., Beven, K. 2012 In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 9, 6, 26 p.
Special issue

Adaptive correction of deterministic models to produce probabilistic forecasts
Smith, P., Beven, K., Weerts, A.H., Leedal, D. 2012 In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 16, 8, p. 2783-2799. 17 p.
Journal article

Flash Flood forecasting using Data Based Mechanistic models and radar rainfall forecasts.
Smith, P., Beven, K., Panziera, L., Germann, U. 2012 In: Waether Radar and Hydrology. Wallingford p. 562-567. 6 p.
Paper

Identification and representation of state dependent non-linearities in flood forecasting using the DBM methodology
Beven, K., Leedal, D., Smith, P., Young, P. 2012 In: System Identification, Environmental Modelling and Control Systems Design. London : Springer Verlag p. 341-366. 26 p. ISBN: 978-0-85729-973-4.
Chapter

Multi-State-Dependent parameter model identification and estimation.
Tych, W., Sadeghi, J., Smith, P., Chotai, A., Taylor, C.J. 2012 In: System Identification, Environmental Modelling and Control System Design. London : Springer p. 191-210. 20 p. ISBN: 978-0-85729-973-4.
Chapter

The impact of data assimilation strategies for correcting the affects of erroneous boundary conditions
Smith, P., Beven, K. 2012
Conference paper

Transport and Dispersion in Large Rivers: Application of the Aggregated Dead Zone Model
Blazkova, S.D., Beven, K.J., Smith, P.J. 2012 In: System Identification, Environmental Modelling, and Control System Design. London : Springer p. 367-382. 16 p. ISBN: 978-0-85729-973-4.
Chapter

A staggered approach to flash flood forecasting a case study in the Cevennes region
Alfieri, L., Smith, P.J., Thielen-del Pozo, J., Beven, K.J. 2011 In: Advances in Geosciences. 29, p. 13-20. 8 p.
Journal article

On the colour and spin of epistemic error (and what we might do about it)
Beven, K., Smith, P., Wood, A. 2011 In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 15, p. 3123-3133. 11 p.
Journal article

Forecasting river levels during flash floods using Data Based Mechanistic models, online data assimilation and meteorological forecasts.
Smith, P., Beven, K. 07/2010
Conference paper

Resilience and survivability in communication networks: Strategies, principles, and survey of disciplines
Sterbenz, J.P.G., Hutchison, D., Çetinkaya, E.K., Jabbar, A., Rohrer, J.P., Schöller, M., Smith, P. 1/06/2010 In: Computer Networks. 54, 8, p. 1245-1265. 21 p.
Journal article

Towards the provision of site specific flood warnings using wireless sensor networks.
Smith, P.J., Hughes, D., Beven, K.J., Cross, P., Tych, W., Blair, G., Coulson, G. 03/2009 In: Meteorological Applications. 16, 1, p. 57-64. 8 p.
Journal article

The provision of site specific flood warnings using wireless sensor networks.
Smith, P.J., Beven, K.J., Tych, W., Hughes, D., Coulson, G., Blair, G. 2009 In: Flood risk management : research and practice. London : CRC Press 309 p. ISBN: 9780415485074.
Chapter

An experiment with reflective middleware to support grid-based flood monitoring
Hughes, D., Greenwood, P., Blair, G., Coulson, G., Grace, P., Pappenberger, F., Smith, P., Beven, K., Coulson, G. 10/08/2008 In: Concurrency and Computation Practice and Experience. 20, 11, p. 1303-1316. 14 p.
Journal article

Informal likelihood measures in model assessment: Theoretic development and investigation
Smith, P., Beven, K.J., Tawn, J.A. 08/2008 In: Advances in Water Resources. 31, 8, p. 1087-1100. 14 p.
Journal article

Managing heterogeneous data flows in wireless sensor networks using a 'split personality' mote platform.
Hughes, D., Daude, M., Coulson, G., Blair, G., Smith, P., Beven, K., Tych, W. 07/2008 In: International Symposium on Applications and the Internet, 2008. SAINT 2008.. IEEE p. 145-148. 4 p.
Paper

So just why would a modeller choose to be incoherent?
Beven, K.J., Smith, P.J., Freer, J. 15/06/2008 In: Journal of Hydrology. 354, 1, p. 15-32. 18 p.
Journal article

Detection of structural inadequacy in process-based hydrological models : a particle-filtering approach.
Smith, P., Beven, K.J., Tawn, J.A. 8/01/2008 In: Water Resources Research. 44, 1, p. W01410.
Journal article

The provision of site specific flood warnings using wireless sensor networks.
Smith, P.J., Beven, K.J., Tych, W., Hughes, D., Coulson, G., Blair, G. 2008 In: Proceedings of FLOODRisk 2008.
Chapter

Likelihood Measure for Environmental Modelling.
Smith, P.J. 2007 81 p.
Doctoral Thesis

Discharge dependent pollutant dispersion in rivers : estimation of aggregated dead zone parameters with surrogate data.
Smith, P., Beven, K., Tawn, J., Blazkova, S., Merta, L. 20/04/2006 In: Water Resources Research. 42, W04412
Journal article

An intelligent and adaptable grid-based flood monitoring and warning system.
Hughes, D., Greenwood, P., Blair, G., Pappenberger, F., Coulson, G., Smith, P., Beven, K. 2006 In: Proceedings of the UK e-Science All Hands Meeting 2006. Edinburgh : National E-Science Centre p. 53-60. 8 p.
Paper