UK Housing Observatory

2016Q4 Release. Overview: The growth in UK property prices continues but at an even lower rate than previous quarters. The reported statistics are still showing no indication of exuberance at the national level. The recent slowdown in property price inflation in London and metropolitan areas affected the corresponding exuberance indicators that are now farther away from the explosive threshold. This follows from the introduction of tax changes and incentives to buy-to-let properties earlier in the year, and the result of the EU referendum in the UK in June (Brexit). Read more

Find out more about the UK Housing Observatory project.

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Indicators of house price exuberance and forecasts of house price growth in the UK National Market. Updated every quarter.

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Indicators of house price exuberance and forecasts of house price growth for 13 regional real estate markets in the UK. Updated every quarter.

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Links to Excel files containing the exuberance indicators and the forecasting results are available for download in this section.

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R and Eviews codes implementing the econometric tests of Phillips et al. (2013) "Testing for Multiple Bubbles 1: Historical Episodes of Exuberance and Collapse in the S&P 500".

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Links to related publications describing the methodology of the Generalised Supremum Augmented Dickey Fuller test used for identification of explosive episodes. 

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A detailed description of the methodology and sources of housing data is available in this section.

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