Predictive episode flow modelling for hospital service planning

Development of a predictive episode flow model for Northern Ireland

Tribal Secta, October 2005

Episode flows are predicated on the capacities and capabilities of the set of hospitals able to provide acute services. This project in Northern Ireland developed models based on the assumption that episodes will flow to the nearest hospital providing the service required: where service requirements are defined in terms of specialty and the level of specialised treatment needed: from routine through to technically complex. Alternative hospital service plans have been evaluated using this modelling where alternatives specify the different competences, locations and capacities of feasible hospital sets. The overall context has been significant reductions in the total number of hospitals available and strategies for the development of (new) local community hospitals.