Professor Robert Fildes

Distinguished Professor

Current Research

I am currently working in the area of climate forecasting. Recent work has shown the large simulation models used in developing the IPCC's view of global warming are seriously flawed.

Is there a golden rule?
Fildes, R., Petropoulos, F. 08/2015 In: Journal of Business Research. 68, 8, p. 1742-1745. 4 p.
Journal article

Simple versus complex selection rules for forecasting many time series
Fildes, R., Petropoulos, F. 08/2015 In: Journal of Business Research. 68, 5, p. 1692-1701. 10 p.
Journal article

Information use in supply chain forecasting
Fildes, R., Goodwin, P., Onkal, D. 05/2015 Lancaster : Department of Management Science, Lancaster University, 35 p.
Working paper

Forecasters and rationality: a comment on Fritsche et al., Forecasting the Brazilian Real and Mexican Peso: Asymmetric loss, forecast rationality and forecaster herding.
Fildes, R. 01/2015 In: International Journal of Forecasting. 31, 1, p. 140-143. 4 p.
Journal article

The value of competitive information in forecasting FMCG retail product sales and the variable selection problem
Huang, T., Fildes, R., Soopramanien, D. 1/09/2014 In: European Journal of Operational Research. 237, 2, p. 738-748. 11 p.
Journal article

Reassessing the scope of OR practice: the influences of problem structuring methods and the analytics movement
Ranyard, J., Fildes, R., Hu, J. 1/08/2014 Lancaster : Department of Management Science, Lancaster University, 40 p.
Working paper

Demand forecasting with high dimensional data: the case of SKU retail sales forecasting with intra- and inter-category promotional information
Ma, S., Fildes, R., Huang, T. 2014 Lancaster : Department of Management Science, Lancaster University, 34 p.
Working paper

On the identification of sales forecasting models in the presence of promotions
Trapero, J.R., Kourentzes, N., Fildes, R. 2014 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 66, p. 299-307. 9 p.
Journal article

Measuring forecasting accuracy: the case of judgmental adjustments to SKU-level demand forecasts
Davydenko, A., Fildes, R. 07/2013 In: International Journal of Forecasting. 29, 3, p. 510-522. 13 p.
Journal article

An evaluation of simple forecasting model selection rules
Fildes, R., Petropoulos, F. 04/2013 Lancaster : The Department of Management Science, 32 p.
Working paper

Analysis of judgmental adjustments in the presence of promotions
Trapero Arenas, J., Pedregal, D.J., Fildes, R., Kourentzes, N. 04/2013 In: International Journal of Forecasting. 29, 2, p. 234-243. 10 p.
Journal article

The value of competitive information in forecasting FMCG retail product sales and the variable selection problem: Working paper 2013:1
Huang, T., Fildes, R., Soopramanien, D. 03/2013 Lancaster, UK : Department of Management Science, Lancaster University, 32 p.
Working paper

Principles of Business Forecasting
Ord, J.K., Fildes, R. 2013 Mason, Ohio : South-Western Cengage Learning. 528 p. ISBN: 9780324311273 .
Book

Impact of Information Exchange on Supplier Forecasting Performance
Trapero Arenas, J., Kourentzes, N., Fildes, R. 12/2012 In: Omega: The International Journal of Management Science. 40, 6, p. 738-747. 10 p.
Journal article

A joint Bayesian forecasting model of judgment and observed data: Working paper 2012: 4
Davydenko, A., Fildes, R. 10/2012 Lancaster : Department of Management Science, Lancaster University
Working paper

Validation and forecasting accuracy in models of climate change
Fildes, R., Kourentzes, N. 10/2011 In: International Journal of Forecasting. 27, 4, p. 968-995. 28 p.
Journal article

Validation and forecasting accuracy in models of climate change: Postscript
Fildes, R., Kourentzes, N. 10/2011 In: International Journal of Forecasting. 27, 4, 2 p.
Editorial

Evaluating the forecasting performance of econometric models of air passenger traffic flows using multiple error measures
Fildes, R., Wei, Y., Ismael, S. 07/2011 In: International Journal of Forecasting. 27, 3, p. 902-922. 21 p.
Journal article

Forecasting: 5 volume set
Fildes, R., Allen, P.G. 2011 London : Sage. 2104 p. ISBN: 9781848607828.
Book

Incorporating demand uncertainty and forecasting in supply chain planning models
Fildes, R.A., Kingsman, B.G. 2011 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 62, p. 483-500. 18 p.
Journal article

Non-linear identification of judgmental forecasts effects at SKU-level
Trapero Arenas, J.R., Fildes, R.A., Davydenko, A. 2011 In: Journal of Forecasting. 30, 5, p. 490–508. 19 p.
Journal article

Restrictiveness and guidance in support systems
Goodwin, P., Fildes, R.A., Lawrence, M., Stephens, G. 2011 In: Omega: The International Journal of Management Science. 39, 3, p. 242-253. 12 p.
Journal article

Using hierarchical task decompositions as a grammar to map actions in context: Application to forecasting systems in supply chain planning
Asimakopoulos, S., Dix, A., Fildes, R.A. 2011 In: International Journal of Human-Computer Studies. 69, 4, p. 234-250. 17 p.
Journal article

Impact of Information Exchange on Supplier Forecasting Performance
Trapero Arenas, J.R., Kourentzes, N., Fildes, R.A. 2010 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

Judgmental Adjustments to Demand Forecasts: Accuracy Evaluation and Bias Correction
Davydenko, A., Fildes, R.A., Trapero Arenas, J.R. 2010 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

Measuring the Accuracy of Judgmental Adjustments to SKU-level Demand Forecasts
Davydenko, A., Fildes, R.A., Trapero Arenas, J.R. 2010 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

Validation in models of climate change and forecasting accuracy
Fildes, R.A., Kourentzes, N. 2010 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: an empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning
Fildes, R.A., Goodwin, P., Lawrence, M., Nikolopoulos, K. 2009 In: International Journal of Forecasting. 25, 1, p. 3-23. 21 p.
Journal article

Forecasting software visualizations: an explorative study
Asimakopoulos, S., Fildes, R.A., Dix, A. 2009 In: 23rd British HCI Conference (Cambridge) - 2009. N/A : unknown
Conference contribution

Non-Linear Identification of Judgmental Forecasts Effects at SKU-Level
Trapero Arenas, J.R., Fildes, R.A., Davydenko, A. 2009 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

The effects of integrating management judgement into intermittent demand forecasts
Syntetos, A.A., Nikolopoulos, K., Boylan, J., Fildes, R., Goodwin, P. 2009 In: International Journal of Production Economics. 118, 1, p. 72-81. 10 p.
Journal article

Forecasting and Operational Research: A Review
Fildes, R.A., Nikolopoulos, K., Crone, S., Syntetos, A. 09/2008 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 59, 9, p. 1150-1172. 23 p.
Journal article

Aggregate selection, data characteristics and choice of optimal model
Fildes, R.A., Madden, G. 2008 In: Telektronikk. 104, 3/4, p. 155-167. 13 p.
Journal article

Forecasting and OR
Fildes, R.A., Nikolopoulos, K., Crone, S., Syntetos, A. 2008 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 59, p. 1150-1172. 23 p.
Journal article

Against your better judgment? How organizations can improve their use of management judgment in forecasting
Fildes, R.A., Goodwin, P. 2007 N/A : unknown, 7 p.
Working paper

Consumer decision making, e-commerce and perceived risks
Soopramanien, D.G.R., Fildes, R.A., Robertson, A. 2007 In: Applied Economics. 39, p. 2159-2166. 8 p.
Journal article

Good and bad judgment in forecasting: lessons from four companies
Fildes, R.A., Goodwin, P. 2007 In: Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 8, p. 5-10. 6 p.
Journal article

Household technology acceptance heterogeneity in computer adoption
Robertson, A., Soopramanien, D.G.R., Fildes, R.A. 2007 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

Optimal forecasting model selection and data characteristics
Fildes, R.A., Tan, J., Madden, G. 2007 In: Applied Financial Economics. 17, p. 1251-1264. 14 p.
Journal article

Providing support for the use of analogies in demand forecasting tasks
Fildes, R.A., Lee, W.Y., Goodwin, P., Nikolopoulos, K. 2007 In: International Journal of Forecasting. 23, p. 377-390. 14 p.
Journal article

Segmental new-product diffusion of residential broadband services
Robertson, A., Soopramanien, D.G.R., Fildes, R.A. 2007 In: Telecommunications Policy. 31, 5, p. 265-275. 11 p.
Journal article

Segmentation based analysis of internet service adoption of UK households
Robertson, A., Soopramanien, D.G.R., Fildes, R.A. 2007 In: Technology in Society. 29, p. 339-350. 12 p.
Journal article

The process of using a forecasting support system
Goodwin, P., Fildes, R.A., Lawrence, M., Nikolopoulos, K. 2007 N/A : unknown, 14 p.
Working paper

Effective forecasting for supply-chain planning: an empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement
Fildes, R.A., Goodwin, P., Lawrence, M., Nikolopoulos, K. 2006 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

Segmental new-product diffusion of residential broadband services
Robertson, A., Soopramanien, D.G.R., Fildes, R.A. 2006 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

The design features of forecasting support systems and their effectiveness
Fildes, R.A., Goodwin, P., Lawrence, M. 2006 In: Decision Support Systems. 42, 1, p. 351-361. 11 p.
Journal article

The impact of forecasting on the bullwhip effect
Stamatopoulos, I., Teunter, R.H., Fildes, R.A. 2006 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

Understanding the use of forecasting software: an interpretive study in a supply-chain company
Goodwin, P., Lee, W.Y., Fildes, R.A., Nikolopoulos, K., Lawrence, M. 2006 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

Demand uncertainty and lot sizing in manufacturing systems: the effects of forecasting errors and mis-specification
Kingsman, B.G., Fildes, R.A. 2005 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

Levels, difference and ECMs: principles for improved econometric forecasting
Allen, P.G., Fildes, R.A. 2005 In: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. 67, p. 881-904. 24 p.
Journal article

Measuring residential internet service adoption patterns
Robertson, A., Soopramanien, D.G.R., Fildes, R.A. 2005 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

On the accuracy of judgmental interventions on forecasting support systems
Nikolopoulos, K., Lawrence, M., Goodwin, P., Fildes, R.A. 2005 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

The accuracy of a procedural approach to specifying feedforward neural networks for forecasting
Liao, K.P., Fildes, R.A. 2005 In: Computers and Operations Research. 32, 8, p. 2151-2169. 19 p.
Journal article

Analysis of company sales data
Goodwin, P., Fildes, R.A., Nikolopoulos, K. 2004 In: International Symposium on Forecasting ISF (Sydney ) - 2004. N/A : unknown
Conference contribution

Forecasting and prediction
Amstrong, J.S., Fildes, R.A. 2004 In: The Social Science Encyclopedia. London and New York : Routledge ISBN: 0-415-32096-8.
Chapter

Levels, differences and ECMs - principles for improved econometric forecasting
Fildes, R.A., Allen, P.G. 2004 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

Preparation for crisis management: a proposed model and empirical evidence
Rose, M.B., Fildes, R.A., Elsubbaugh, S. 2004 In: Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management. 12, 3, p. 112-127. 16 p.
Journal article

Sales forecasting support systems (FSS) for the supply chain
Fildes, R.A., Nikolopoulos, K. 2004 In: Operational Research 46th Annual Conference (York ) - 2004. N/A : unknown
Conference contribution

Understanding residential internet adoption patterns in the UK
Robertson, A., Soopramanien, D.G.R., Fildes, R.A. 2004 In: Telektronikk. 100, 4, p. 84-93. 10 p.
Journal article

Internet Usage and Online Shopping Experience as Predictors of Consumers’per Preferences to Shop Online Across Product Categories
Soopramanien, D.G.R., Robertson, A., Fildes, R.A. 2003 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

The accuracy of a procedural approach to specifying feedforward neural networks for forecasting
Fildes, R.A., Liao, K.P. 2003 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

The design features of forecasting support systems and their effectiveness
Lawrence, M., Goodwin, P., Fildes, R.A. 2003 Lancaster University : The Department of Management Science
Working paper

Forecasting competitions - their role in improving forecasting practice and research
Fildes, R.A., Ord, J.K. 2002 In: A Companion to Economic Forecasting. Oxford : Blackwell p. 322-353. 32 p. ISBN: 0-6312-1569-7.
Chapter

Influence of user participation on DSS use and decision accuracy
Lawrence, M., Goodwin, P., Fildes, R.A. 2002 In: Omega: The International Journal of Management Science. 30, p. 381-392. 12 p.
Journal article

Telecommunications demand - a review
Fildes, R.A. 2002 In: International Journal of Forecasting. 18, p. 489-522. 34 p.
Journal article

The state of macroeconomic forecasting
Fildes, R.A., Stekler, H. 2002 In: Journal of Macroeconomics. 24, 4, p. 435-468. 34 p.
Journal article

Beyond forecasting competitions
Fildes, R.A. 2001 In: International Journal of Forecasting. 17, 4, p. 556-560. 5 p.
Journal article

Econometric forecasting: strategies and techniques
Fildes, R.A., Allen, P.G. 2001 In: Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners. Berlin : Springer p. 303-362. 60 p. ISBN: 0-7923-7930-6.
Chapter

Judgemental forecasts of times series affected by special events: does providing a statistical forecast improve accuracy?
Fildes, R.A., Goodwin, P. 1999 In: Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. 12, p. 37-53. 17 p.
Journal article

The management of OR groups: results of a survey
Crymble, W.R., Ranyard, J.C., Fildes, R.A. 1999 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 50, p. 563-580. 18 p.
Journal article

The state of macroeconomic forecasting
Stekler, H., Fildes, R.A. 1999 Lancaster University : The Department of Economics
Working paper

Commentaries on 'Generalizing about the univariate forecasting methods: further empirical evidence'
Koehler, A.B., Armstrong, J.C., Hibon, M., Makridakis, S., Fildes, R.A. 1998 In: International Journal of Forecasting. 14, 3, p. 359-366. 8 p.
Journal article

Forecasting internet telephony
Raina, J., Day, K., Fildes, R.A. 1998 In: OR Insight. 11, 4
Journal article

Generalising about univariate forecasting methods: further empirical evidence
Hibon, M., Meade, N., Makridakis, S., Fildes, R.A. 1998 In: International Journal of Forecasting. 14, 3, p. 339-358. 20 p.
Journal article

Summary of final discussion
Fildes, R.A., Ranyard, J.C. 1998 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 49, p. 434-443. 10 p.
Journal article

The foundations, development and current practice of OR
Fildes, R.A., Ranyard, J.C. 1998 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 49, p. 304-443. 140 p.
Journal article

The role of prices in models of innovation diffusion
Fildes, R.A., Bottomley, P. 1998 In: Journal of Forecasting. 17, 7, p. 539-555. 17 p.
Journal article

Winners and losers: adding organisational value
Fildes, R.A., Ranyard, J.C. 1998 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 49, p. 355-368. 14 p.
Journal article

Daily demand forecasting in the utility industries
Randall, A., Stubbs, P., Fildes, R.A. 1997 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 48, p. 15-24. 10 p.
Journal article

Death of an OR group: a case study
Crymble, W.R., Fildes, R.A., Ranyard, J.C. 1997 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 48, 4, p. 361-372. 12 p.
Journal article

One day ahead demand forecasting in the utility industries: two case studies
Randall, A., Stubbs, P., Fildes, R.A. 1997 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 48, p. 15-24. 10 p.
Journal article

Success and survival of operational research groups - a review
Fildes, R.A., Ranyard, J.C. 1997 In: Journal of the Operational Research Society. 48, 4, p. 336-360. 25 p.
Journal article