Professor Brian Francis

Professor of Social Statistics

Research Overview

I am a social statistician with interests in preference models, latent class methods for longitudinal data, mixture models and categorical data problems. Applications are crucial to my work. I primarily research into quantitative criminology -both methodological and substantive problems - focusing on the criminal careers of offenders and social and developmental change. I am also interested in anaylsing administrative and survey data and am investigating issues related to violence and serious offending, including sexual offending, homicide, trafficking, organised and cyber-crime. Recent work has focused on high frequency victimisation and gender based violence. More broadly I am working on child developmental studies in psychology and in fetal development.

Selected Publications Show all 248 publications

Missing observations in paired comparison data
Dittrich, R., Francis, B., Hatzinger, R., Katzenbeisser, W. 04/2012 In: Statistical Modelling. 12, 2, p. 117-143. 27 p.
Journal article

A Longitudinal Study of Escalation in Crime Seriousness
Liu, J., Francis, B., Soothill, K. 06/2011 In: Journal of Quantitative Criminology. 27, 2, p. 175-196. 22 p.
Journal article

Do facial expressions develop before birth?
Reissland, N., Francis, B., Mason, J., Lincoln, K. 31/08/2011 In: PLoS ONE. 6, 8, 7 p.
Journal article

Does serious offending lead to homicide?: exploring the interrelationships and sequencing of serious crime.
Soothill, K., Francis, B., Liu, J. 07/2008 In: British Journal of Criminology. 48, 4, p. 522-537. 16 p.
Journal article

Identifying patterns of offending behaviour: a new approach to typologies of crime.
Francis, B.J., Fligelstone, R., Soothill, K. 2004 In: European Journal of Criminology. 1, 1, p. 48-87. 40 p.
Journal article

Modeling heterogeneity in ranked responses by nonparametric maximum likelihood: How do Europeans get their scientific knowledge?
Francis, B., Dittrich, R., Hatzinger, R. 2010 In: Annals of Applied Statistics. 4, 4, p. 2181-2202. 22 p.
Journal article

Criminal Lifestyle Specialization: Female Offending in England and Wales
Francis, B., Liu, J., Soothill, K. 06/2010 In: International Criminal Justice Review. 20, 2, p. 188-204. 17 p.
Journal article

Smoothing group-based trajectory models through B-splines
Francis, B.J., Elliott, A., Weldon, M. 04/2016 In: Journal of Developmental and Life Course Criminology . 2, 1, p. 113-133. 21 p.
Journal article

A latent Markov model for detecting patterns of criminal activity.
Francis, B.J., Bartolucci, F., Pennoni, F. 01/2007 In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society). 170, 1, p. 115-132. 18 p.
Journal article

Statistical modelling in R
Aitkin, M., Francis, B., Hinde, J., Darnell, R. 2009 Oxford : Oxford University Press. 568 p. ISBN: 0199219133, 9780199219131.

Analysing partial ranks by using smoothed paired comparison methods: an investigation of value orientation in Europe.
Francis, B., Dittrich, R., Hatzinger, R., Penn, R.D. 1/07/2002 In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics). 51, 3, p. 319-336. 18 p.
Journal article

A new approach for ranking crime seriousness : the use of paired comparison methodology.
Francis, B.J., Soothill, K.L., Dittrich, R. 2001 In: British Journal of Criminology. 41, 4, p. 726-737. 12 p.
Journal article

Modelling escalation in crime seriousness: a latent variable approach
Francis, B., Liu, J. 21/08/2015 In: Metron. 73, 2, p. 277-297. 21 p.
Journal article

Is violence increasing or decreasing?: a new methodology to measure repeat attacks making visible the significance of gender and domestic relations
Walby, S., Towers, J., Francis, B. 2016 In: British Journal of Criminology. 56, 6, p. 1203-1234. 32 p.
Journal article

Can the FIFA world cup football (soccer) tournament be associated with an increase in domestic abuse?
Kirby, S., Francis, B., O'Flahery, R. 08/2014 In: Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency. 51, 3, p. 259-276. 18 p.
Journal article

EU: TRAFFDAT - study on the data analysis of trafficking in human beings
11/06/2018 → 10/10/2018

Study on comprehensive policy review of anti-trafficking projects funded by the European Commission
01/01/2016 → 30/09/2019

Trafficking: Study on the gender dimension of trafficking in human beings
31/12/2014 → 30/09/2015

FIRB: Mixture and latent variable model for causal inference and analysis of socio-economic data
01/10/2013 → 30/09/2016

Is the Rate of Domestic Violence Decreasing or Increasing? A Re-Analysis of the British Crime Survey
01/04/2013 → 30/09/2014

Applied Quantitative Methods Network: Phase II
01/01/2013 → 30/06/2017

Overview of the worldwide best practices for rape prevention & assisting women victims of rape
01/11/2012 → 31/10/2014

New models and analyses for social networks and criminological careers
01/03/2012 → 31/12/2016

fEC Code - Criminal Careers Within Organised Crime
01/02/2012 → …

Fetal Movement and Development
01/01/2012 → 30/09/2017

Gender quotas in management boards
01/01/2012 → 31/03/2012

National Centre for Research Methods Node Phase 2 Lancaster - Warwick - Stirling
01/10/2008 → 31/03/2012

Reconviction predictions
01/01/2007 → 15/11/2007

Homicide and the Media
01/01/1997 → …

How can cancer services best meet the psychosocial needs of patients and their main carers?
01/01/1997 → 31/12/2000

Understanding Temporal Changes in Offending Behaviour
01/01/1997 → 31/12/1999

Statistical Methods in Health and Social Science

  • Security Lancaster
  • Security Lancaster (Violence & Society)
  • Statistical Methods in Health and Social Science
  • Violence and Society UNESCO Centre