Professor Peter Neal

Professor of Statistics

PhD Supervision Interests

The understanding and control of infectious diseases is of considerable importance to society. How a disease spreads and/or how infectious a disease is, has tremendous implications upon the health and wealth of a community. I am interested in both the probabilistic and statistical analysis of infectious diseases. From a probabilistic perspective, we look to answer questions as: What is the probability that a disease takes hold within a community? How many individuals are ultimately infected by the disease? This involves developing novel probabilistic techniques to answer these questions for realistic population models such as the household and random graph models. Alternatively, having observed an epidemic we can propose a model for the disease spread and estimate the model parameters. However, often the disease data are "incomplete" and novel statistical methods, in particular, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) are required to analyse the data. We aim to answer questions concerning the adequacy of the model and the predictive capabilities of the model for the future epidemic outbreaks.

A tutorial introduction to Bayesian inference for stochastic epidemic models using Approximate Bayesian Computation
Kypraios, T., Neal, P.J., Prangle, D. 18/07/2016 In: Mathematical Biosciences.
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A household SIR epidemic model incorporating time of day effects
Neal, P. 21/06/2016 In: Journal of Applied Probability. 53, 2, p. 489-501. 13 p.
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The asymptotic variance of the giant component of configuration model random graphs
Ball, F., Neal, P.J. 15/06/2016 In: Annals of Applied Probability.
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Collapsing of non-centered parameterised MCMC algorithms with applications to epidemic models
Neal, P.J., Xiang, F. 17/05/2016 In: Scandinavian Journal of Statistics.
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On expected durations of birth-death processes, with applications to branching processes and SIS epidemics
Ball, F., Britton, T., Neal, P. 24/03/2016 In: Journal of Applied Probability. 53, 1, p. 203-215. 13 p.
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Forward simulation MCMC with applications to stochastic epidemic models
Neal, P., Huang, C.L. 06/2015 In: Scandinavian Journal of Statistics. 42, 2, p. 378-396. 19 p.
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Exact Bayesian inference via data augmentation
Neal, P., Kypraios, T. 03/2015 In: Statistics and Computing. 25, 2, p. 333-347. 15 p.
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Efficient MCMC for temporal epidemics via parameter reduction
Xiang, F., Neal, P. 12/2014 In: Computational Statistics and Data Analysis. 80, p. 240-250. 11 p.
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Endemic behaviour of SIS epidemics with general infectious period distributions.
Neal, P. 2014 In: Advances in Applied Probability. 46, 1, p. 241-255. 15 p.
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Robust estimation of microbial diversity in theory and in practice
Haegeman, B., Hamelin, J., Moriarty, J., Neal, P., Dushoff, J., Weitz, J.S. 06/2013 In: ISME Journal. 7, 6, p. 1092-1101. 10 p.
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Statistical analysis of an endemic disease from a capture-recapture experiment.
Wei, Y., Neal, P., Telfer, S., Begon, M. 12/2012 In: Journal of Applied Statistics. 39, 12, p. 2759-2773. 15 p.
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Efficient likelihood-free Bayesian Computation for household epidemics
Neal, P. 11/2012 In: Statistics and Computing. 22, 6, p. 1239-1256. 18 p.
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The probability of extinction of a dynamic epidemic model
Neal, P.J. 03/2012 In: Mathematical Biosciences. 236, 1, p. 31-35. 5 p.
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Optimal scaling of random walk Metropolis algorithms with discontinuous target densities
Neal, P., Roberts, G., Yuen, W.K. 2012 In: Annals of Applied Probability. 22, 5, p. 1880-1927. 48 p.
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Optimal scaling of random walk metropolis algorithms with non-Gaussian proposals
Neal, P.J., Roberts, G. 09/2011 In: Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability. 13, 3, p. 583-601. 19 p.
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The time to extinction for an SIS-household-epidemic model
Britton, T., Neal, P. 12/2010 In: Journal of Mathematical Biology. 61, 6, p. 763-779. 17 p.
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Applications of branching processes to the final size of SIR epidemics
Ball, F., Neal, P.J. 22/01/2010 In: Workshop on Branching Processes and Their Applications . Springer p. 209-225. 17 p.
Paper

Efficient order selection algorithms for integer valued ARMA processes
Enciso Mora, V., Neal, P., Subba Rao, T. 01/2009 In: Journal of Time Series Analysis. 30, 1, p. 1-18. 18 p.
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Bayesian Analysis for Emerging Infectious Diseases
Jewell, C., Kypraios, T., Neal, P., Roberts, G. 2009 In: Bayesian Analysis. 4, 3, p. 465-496. 32 p.
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Integer valued AR processes with explanatory variables
Enciso-Mora, V., Neal, P.J., Subba Rao, T. 2009 In: Sankyha B : Applied and Interdisciplinary Statistics. 71, 2, p. 248-263. 16 p.
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The generalized coupon collector problem
Neal, P.J. 09/2008 In: Journal of Applied Probability. 45, 3, p. 621-629. 9 p.
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Optimal scaling for random walk metropolis on spherically constrained target densities
Neal, P.J., Roberts, G. 06/2008 In: Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability. 10, 2, p. 277-297. 21 p.
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Network epidemic models with two levels of mixing
Ball, F., Neal, P. 03/2008 In: Mathematical Biosciences. 212, 1, p. 69-87. 19 p.
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The SIS Great Circle Epidemic model
Neal, P. 2008 In: Journal of Applied Probability. 45, 2, p. 513-530. 18 p.
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MCMC for integer valued ARMA processes
Neal, P.J., Subba Rao, T. 01/2007 In: Journal of Time Series Analysis. 28, 1, p. 92-110. 19 p.
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Comparisons of two SIR epidemic models with variable susceptibility and infectivity.
Neal, P.J. 2007 In: Journal of Applied Probability. 44, 1, p. 41-57. 17 p.
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Stochastic and deterministic analysis of SIS household epidemics
Neal, P.J. 12/2006 In: Advances in Applied Probability. 38, 4, p. 943-968. 26 p.
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Multitype randomised Reed-Frost epidemics and epidemics upon random graphs
Neal, P.J. 08/2006 In: Annals of Applied Probability. 16, 3, p. 1166-1189. 24 p.
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Optimal scaling for partially updating MCMC algorithms
Neal, P.J., Roberts, G. 05/2006 In: Annals of Applied Probability. 16, 2, p. 475-515. 41 p.
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A case study in non-centering for data augmentation: stochastic epidemics
Neal, P.J., Roberts, G. 2005 In: Statistics and Computing. 15, 4, p. 315-327. 13 p.
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Compound Poisson limits for household epidemics
Neal, P.J. 2005 In: Journal of Applied Probability. 42, 2, p. 334-345. 12 p.
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Statistical inference and model selection for the 1861 Hagelloch measles epidemic.
Neal, P.J., Roberts, G.O. 04/2004 In: Biostatistics. 5, 2, p. 249-261. 13 p.
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Poisson approximations for epidemics with two levels of mixing
Ball, F., Neal, P.J. 2004 In: Annals of Probability. 32, 1B, p. 1168-1200. 33 p.
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SIR epidemics on a Bernoulli random graph
Neal, P.J. 2003 In: Journal of Applied Probability. 40, 3, p. 779-782. 4 p.
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The great circle epidemic model
Ball, F., Neal, P.J. 2003 In: Stochastic Processes and their Applications. 107, 2, p. 233-268. 26 p.
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A general model for stochastic SIR epidemics with two levels of mixing.
Ball, F.G., Neal, P.J. 11/2002 In: Mathematical Biosciences. 180, 1-2, p. 73-102. 30 p.
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