Andrew Jarvis
Lancaster Environment Centre
Lancaster University
plus44 1524 593280

MSc Energy and Environment

LEC380 Energy, Climate and Society

What drives long-run global growth?

In addition to pensions, mortgages are key to driving long-run growth. In fact, it is getting harder and harder to differentiate between the two given pensions use mortgage funds and mortgages use pension funds! Invariably people plan to pay off their mortgage near retirement. But more importantly the lender sees this as an investment which yields a return through the monthly repayments. Interestingly therefore the buyer is simply an opportunity for the lender to develop and extend a little bit more of the space being filled by industrial society. So ~2.5 %/yr growth is a result of  savings backed investments through pensions and repayment based investments through mortgages, both serviced over working lifetimes! The critical importance of these have been largely overlooked because they only represent ~5 % or annual turnover. The focus is generally on the remaining 95% that simply keeps the wheels of the economy running, but it is the judicious investment of this 5 % residual that is absolutely key to the evolution of the current system. Half of this investment goes on repairing stuff, leaving ~2.5 % for actual material growth. So if you are interested in limiting resource use then pensions and mortgages look like good places to focus attention.

Selected papers

Resource acquisition, distribution and end-use efficiencies and the growth of industrial society. Jarvis AJ, Jarvis SJ and Hewitt CN. Earth System Dynamics, 6, 1–14, (2015) (pdf)

A New Method of Comparing Forcing Agents in Climate Models. Kravitz B, McMartin DG, Rasch PJ, Jarvis AJ, Journal of Climate, 28, 8203 - 8218 (2015) (pdf)

Dynamics of the coupled human–climate system resulting from closed-loop control of solar geoengineering. MacMartin DG, Kravitz B, Keith DW, Jarvis AJ, Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-013-1822-9 (2013) (pdf)

Climate-society feedbacks and the avoidance of dangerous climate change. Jarvis, AJ, Leedal DT and Hewitt CN, Nature Climate Change, 2 (9), 668-671 (2012) (pdf)

The geoengineering model intercomparison project: A control perspective. Jarvis AJ and Leedal DT, Atmospheric Science, (2012) (pdf)

The magnitudes and timescales of global mean surface temperature feedbacks in climate models. Jarvis AJ, Earth System Dynamics, 2, 213–221 (2011) (pdf)

The contribution of timescales to the temperature response of climate models. Jarvis AJ and Li S, Climate Dynamics, (2010) (pdf)

Long run surface temperature dynamics of an A-OGCM: the HadCM3 4xCO(2) forcing experiment revisited. Li, S; Jarvis AJ, Climate Dynamics, 33, 817-825 (2009) (pdf)

Stabilizing global mean surface temperature: A feedback control perspective. Jarvis, A; Leedal, D; Taylor, CJ, Environmental Modelling and Software, 24, 665-674 (2009) (pdf)

Are response function representations of the global carbon cycle ever interpretable? Li, S; Jarvis, AJ; Leedal, DT, Tellus, 61B,361–371 (2008) (pdf)

A sequential CO2 emissions strategy based on optimal control of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Jarvis AJ, Young PC, Leedal DT and Chotai A, Climatic Change, DOI 10.1007/s10584-007-9298-4 (2008) (pdf)