Andrew Jarvis
Lancaster Environment Centre
Lancaster University
LA1 4YQ
plus44 1524 593280
a.jarvis(at)lancs.ac.uk


Energy Lancaster

MSc Energy and Environment

LEC303 Climate and Society

Global Futures

IAGP

Working papers

Business-as-usual

I have been attempting to construct 'Business-As-Usual' (BAU) forecasts of global primary energy use (and CO2 emissions) based simply on the observed behaviour of these metrics over the last 160 years. The idea is that in the absence of any detectable/known change to historic norms, past = future must be the null position. Under this assumption an historically-defined BAU should provide the most likely forecasts of future energy use and emissions over timescales corresponding to the observed inertial dynamics. It appears that these inertial dynamics are quite rich and interesting, offering some support to Kondratiev' controversial findings that the world economy is in part goverened by long (~60 year) wave dynamics. Interestingly, in terms of energy use one of the most important harmonics appears to be the ~7 year cycle, suggesting that we should expect some aftershock effects from the ~2008 recession in ~2015. However, this is imposed on a background of generally increasing relative growth in energy use, at least until ~2020.

The ‘Business-As-Usual’ growth of global primary energy use and carbon dioxide emissions – historical trends and near-term forecasts. Jarvis AJ and Hewitt CN. (under review) (pdf)

Industrial society as a network of networks

If you look at the available data then it appears global CO2 emissions have grown at ~3/4 the rate of primary energy use. Similarly final energy use has grown at ~3/4 the rate of primary energy use. One possible explanation for this (and I'm yet to think or hear of an alternative, credible or otherwise) is that the growth in global energy use is in part regulated by the networks (conveyors, pipes, cables, roads, shipping lanes, flight paths, foot paths etc...) responsible for linking resources to their points of end use. Here the 3/4 scaling is optimal if these networks operate within 3d space. It appears many reviewers find this a step too far.

Resource acquisition, distribution and end-use efficiencies and the growth of industrial society. Jarvis AJ, Jarvis SJ and Hewitt CN. (under review) (pdf)

Published papers

Dynamics of the coupled human–climate system resulting from closed-loop control of solar geoengineering. MacMartin DG, Kravitz B, Keith DW, Jarvis AJ, Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-013-1822-9 (2013) (pdf)

Climate-society feedbacks and the avoidance of dangerous climate change. Jarvis, AJ, Leedal DT and Hewitt CN, Nature Climate Change, 2 (9), 668-671 (2012) (pdf)

The geoengineering model intercomparison project: A control perspective. Jarvis AJ and Leedal DT, Atmospheric Science, (2012) (pdf)

The magnitudes and timescales of global mean surface temperature feedbacks in climate models. Jarvis AJ, Earth System Dynamics, 2, 213–221 (2011) (pdf)

The contribution of timescales to the temperature response of climate models. Jarvis AJ and Li S, Climate Dynamics, (2010) (pdf)

Long run surface temperature dynamics of an A-OGCM: the HadCM3 4xCO(2) forcing experiment revisited. Li, S; Jarvis AJ, Climate Dynamics, 33, 817-825 (2009) (pdf)

Stabilizing global mean surface temperature: A feedback control perspective. Jarvis, A; Leedal, D; Taylor, CJ, Environmental Modelling and Software, 24, 665-674 (2009) (pdf)

Are response function representations of the global carbon cycle ever interpretable? Li, S; Jarvis, AJ; Leedal, DT, Tellus, 61B,361–371 (2008) (pdf)

A sequential CO2 emissions strategy based on optimal control of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Jarvis AJ, Young PC, Leedal DT and Chotai A, Climatic Change, DOI 10.1007/s10584-007-9298-4 (2008) (pdf)