31 March 2017
The battle to fully recapture Mosul from the Islamic State (IS) is in its final stages – and it is rapidly intensifying. On March 17, 200 civilians were killed in airstrikes on western Mosul mounted by the US and the Operation Inherent Resolve coalition. Lt Gen. Stephen Townsend, commander of Operation Inherent Resolve, suggested that the US might be directly responsible for the deaths: “because we struck in that area, I think there’s a fair chance that we did it”. This is the latest in a series of incidents involving collateral damage. Townsend suggested that the fighting in Iraq’s second city is “probably the toughest and most brutal close-quarters combat that I have experienced in my 35 years of service”.

The battle for Mosul has put thousands of civilians in the crossfire. The people of Mosul have endured hell under IS rule, some now being used them as human shields in a clear breach of international law. As one told the BBC:

People who didn’t support Daesh [IS], or pay allegiance to them, or who carried a mobile phone, were hanged all day at traffic lights then killed and burned. They hanged them also on bridges for a month or two until you could see their bones.

Now the battle has moved into Mosul’s Old City and the area around the Grand Mosque of al-Nuri, and IS is being forced back street by street. But the fighting in these densely populated areas is ferocious, and few of its residents are able to leave. This all only increases the pressure on Iraq and its allies to liberate the city The way the IS threat is ultimately defused will have serious implications for both Iraq and the Middle East at large.

When it comes, the liberation of Mosul will be met with great acclaim – but only then will the most difficult challenges begin. As Iraq has learned before, winning the war is the easy part – winning the peace is far harder.

Falling apart

Recent history has divided Iraq along sectarian lines that long predate IS. After the Arab uprisings of 2011, relationships between regimes and societies across the Middle East and North Africa became increasingly fractious. All over the region, the structures that kept governance in place began to fall apart – and, in a number of cases, sovereign states themselves began to fragment. Ideas of authority and citizenship, both vitally important to keeping divided societies together, suddenly came into question.

The violence that flares up along Iraq’s divisions often descends into a back-and-forth of reciprocal brutality – take the 2014 Speicher massacre, where 1,700 army cadets were killed by IS close to Tikrit. 

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