Dr Ciaran Broderick

Dr Ciaran Broderick

Research Associate

LEC Building
Lancaster University
Bailrigg
Lancaster
United Kingdom
LA1 4YQ

I am working as part of the DURESS project (Diversity of Upland Rivers for Ecosystem Service Sustainability); the principal aim of which is to examine the role of biodiversity in upland systems with respect to the provision of ecosystem services. Within this my research will employ a data-based mechanistic approach to modelling various aspects of water quality and flow behaviour; the project utilizes datasets from a series of intensively monitored sites in the Welsh uplands. This research will improve our understanding of hydrological processes in upland systems, and examine their potential response to changes in land use and climate.

Research Interests

  • Climate change impacts on catchment hydrology
  • Scenarios of regional climate change and variability
  • The evaluation and downscaling of climate model outputs
  • The application and testing of hydrological models
  • Habitat assessment in riverine systems
  • Managing/addressing facets of uncertainty in environmental modelling
  • Methods in circulation classification and their application to hydroclimatological analysis

Thesis Title

Climate Change and Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar): Changes in Flow and Freshwater Habitat in the Burrishoole Catchment http://eprints.nuim.ie/3996/

Thesis Outline

Climate change is anticipated to impact the flow regime of riverine systems with resultant consequences for the freshwater habitat of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and the long-term sustainability of their population numbers. The Burrishoole catchment, a relatively small but productive salmon catchment (~90 km2) located on Ireland’s west coast, is used as a case study to investigate this. A series of high resolution climate scenarios were employed to examine potential changes in the climate and hydrology of this catchment. The climate scenarios used represent different combinations of greenhouse gas emission scenarios, driving GCMs and statistical/dynamical downscaling models; in addition, three different rainfall-runoff models (HBV, HYSIM and TOPMODEL) were employed – integrating across both structural and parameter uncertainty. By considering multiple model pathways this study attempts to sample across the uncertainties encountered at each stage in the process of translating prescribed anthropogenic forcings into local scale responses in the catchment system. The hydrological projections were examined in the context of the habitat and flow requirements of Atlantic salmon at key stages in their life-cycle (e.g. spawning, migration). Model projections suggest that the catchment is likely to become warmer, with wetter winters and drier summers occurring. The results of the hydrological modelling suggest that this will be accompanied by an increase in the seasonality of its flow regime - manifest in an increase in low (Q95) summer and high (Q05) winter flows. If realised, these changes are likely to impact salmon through a reduction in the availability of preferred habitat, a loss in connectivity across the catchment system and a disruption to the evolved synchrony between the occurrence of optimal in-stream conditions and the time at which certain life history events occur. Each of these factors is likely to impact the processes of migration, reproduction and recruitment - each of which is critical for the long-term viability of healthy, self-sustaining wild stocks in the catchment. Based on the projected flow data it is likely that the carrying capacity and productivity of the catchment may be reduced. In addition, by affecting those life stages which are already subject to significant mortality losses (e.g. fry emergence, smolt migration), changes in climate may result in population collapse - particularly if successive year-classes are affected. The results of the hydrological modelling highlight the sensitivity of smaller spatey catchments to changes in climate. Given that the Burrishoole system is typical of many catchment systems found along Ireland’s western seaboard, the results highlight a vulnerability to climate change which is present more generally across the region.

Qualifications

2008-2012            PhD Geography: National University of Ireland Maynooth

2006-2007            Post-graduate Diploma in Environmental Engineering: Trinity College Dublin

2005-2006            MSc Environmental Resource Management: National University of Ireland Maynooth

Dissertation title: Assessing the impacts of climate change on Ireland’s East coast: A water resource analysis

2002-2005            BA in Geography: National University of Ireland Maynooth

Selected Publications

An analysis of the synoptic and climatological applicability of circulation type classifications for Ireland

Broderick, C. & Fealy, R. 2014 In : International Journal of Climatology. 25 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal article

Ciaran Broderick's Publications

2014

An analysis of the synoptic and climatological applicability of circulation type classifications for Ireland

Broderick, C. & Fealy, R. 2014 In : International Journal of Climatology. 25 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal article

Catchment hydrology under future climate scenarios

Broderick, C. & Murphy, C. 2014 Technical report: review and simulate climate and catchment responses at Burrishoole (RESCALE). Marine Institute, p. 244-302 59 p. (Marine Research Sub-Programme (NDP 2007-’13) Series).

Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/ProceedingsChapter

Developing climate scenarios for the Burrishoole

Broderick, C. & Fealy, R. 2014 Technical Report: Review and Simulate Climate and Catchment Responses at Burrishoole (RESCALE). Fealy, R. (ed.). Marine Institute, p. 182-243 62 p. (Marine Research Sub-Programme (NDP 2007-’13) Series).

Research output: Contribution in Book/Report/ProceedingsChapter

Ciaran Broderick's Projects

2012

DURESS

To address the overarching hypothesis that Biodiversity is central to the sustainable delivery of upland river ecosystem services under changing land-use and climate we ask: 1. What is the range of services delivered by upland rivers, and which are biologically mediated? 2. What are the links between biodiversity (from genes to food webs) and service delivery? 3. How does river biodiversity affect the rate or resilience of ecosystem service delivery through time? 4. How do changes in catchment land use/ management and climate affect river biota? 5. How should river biodiversity be managed to sustain ecosystem services? At spatial scales ranging from small experimental catchments to the whole region, and at temporal scales from sub-annual to over three decades, the work will be carried out in upland Wales as a well-defined geographical area of the UK that is particularly rich in the spatially extensive and long-term data required for the project.

Lancaster is responsible for the hydrological instrumentation, monitoring and interpretation of five upland micro-basins near Llyn Brianne and for Work Package 4 the time-series modelling of DURESS data-sets from across upland Wales. In the latter component we will work closely with DURESS partner Dwr Cymru Welsh Water