On October 13th Poland holds a parliamentary election which is likely to be one of the most important and consequential since the collapse of communism in 1989. Poland is the largest of the post-communist states in the EU, so the election result will be of broader significance for Europe as well. During the last four years, the current government, led by the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, has been in ongoing conflict with the EU political establishment and subject to intense criticism from the Western opinion-forming media. Nonetheless, the party remains very popular and retains a clear lead in the opinion polls. But while Law and Justice is very likely to emerge as the largest grouping in the new parliament it is much less clear if it will retain its overall majority. If it does not, then it is likely to be replaced by a weak and ideologically eclectic coalition of liberal-centrist, left-wing and agrarian opposition parties. In this presentation, I will analyse the results of the election and consider their broader implications for Europe.

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