Professor Brian Francis
Professor of Social StatisticsResearch Overview
I am a social statistician with interests in preference models, latent class methods for longitudinal data, mixture models and categorical data problems. Applications are crucial to my work. I primarily research into quantitative criminology -both methodological and substantive problems - focusing on the criminal careers of offenders and social and developmental change. I am also interested in analysing administrative and survey data and am investigating issues related to violence and serious offending, including sexual offending, homicide, trafficking, organised and cyber-crime. Recent work has focused on high frequency victimisation and gender based violence. More broadly I am working on child developmental studies in psychology.
Selected Publications
Missing observations in paired comparison data
Dittrich, R., Francis, B., Hatzinger, R., Katzenbeisser, W. 04/2012 In: Statistical Modelling. 12, 2, p. 117-143. 27 p.
Journal article
A Longitudinal Study of Escalation in Crime Seriousness
Liu, J., Francis, B., Soothill, K. 06/2011 In: Journal of Quantitative Criminology. 27, 2, p. 175-196. 22 p.
Journal article
Do facial expressions develop before birth?
Reissland, N., Francis, B., Mason, J., Lincoln, K. 31/08/2011 In: PLoS ONE. 6, 8, 7 p.
Journal article
Does serious offending lead to homicide?: exploring the interrelationships and sequencing of serious crime.
Soothill, K., Francis, B., Liu, J. 07/2008 In: British Journal of Criminology. 48, 4, p. 522-537. 16 p.
Journal article
Identifying patterns of offending behaviour: a new approach to typologies of crime.
Francis, B.J., Fligelstone, R., Soothill, K. 2004 In: European Journal of Criminology. 1, 1, p. 48-87. 40 p.
Journal article
Modeling heterogeneity in ranked responses by nonparametric maximum likelihood: How do Europeans get their scientific knowledge?
Francis, B., Dittrich, R., Hatzinger, R. 2010 In: Annals of Applied Statistics. 4, 4, p. 2181-2202. 22 p.
Journal article
Criminal Lifestyle Specialization: Female Offending in England and Wales
Francis, B., Liu, J., Soothill, K. 06/2010 In: International Criminal Justice Review. 20, 2, p. 188-204. 17 p.
Journal article
Smoothing group-based trajectory models through B-splines
Francis, B.J., Elliott, A., Weldon, M. 04/2016 In: Journal of Developmental and Life Course Criminology . 2, 1, p. 113-133. 21 p.
Journal article
A latent Markov model for detecting patterns of criminal activity.
Francis, B.J., Bartolucci, F., Pennoni, F. 01/2007 In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A Statistics in Society. 170, 1, p. 115-132. 18 p.
Journal article
Statistical modelling in R
Aitkin, M., Francis, B., Hinde, J., Darnell, R. 2009 Oxford : Oxford University Press. 568 p. ISBN: 0199219133, 9780199219131.
Book
Analysing partial ranks by using smoothed paired comparison methods: an investigation of value orientation in Europe.
Francis, B., Dittrich, R., Hatzinger, R., Penn, R.D. 1/07/2002 In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics). 51, 3, p. 319-336. 18 p.
Journal article
A new approach for ranking crime seriousness : the use of paired comparison methodology.
Francis, B.J., Soothill, K.L., Dittrich, R. 2001 In: British Journal of Criminology. 41, 4, p. 726-737. 12 p.
Journal article
Modelling escalation in crime seriousness: a latent variable approach
Francis, B., Liu, J. 21/08/2015 In: Metron. 73, 2, p. 277-297. 21 p.
Journal article
Is violence increasing or decreasing?: a new methodology to measure repeat attacks making visible the significance of gender and domestic relations
Walby, S., Towers, J., Francis, B. 1/11/2016 In: British Journal of Criminology. 56, 6, p. 1203-1234. 32 p.
Journal article
Can the FIFA world cup football (soccer) tournament be associated with an increase in domestic abuse?
Kirby, S., Francis, B., O'Flahery, R. 08/2014 In: Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency. 51, 3, p. 259-276. 18 p.
Journal article
All Publications
Working memory and its relation to key outcomes in the real world
18/10/2023 → 17/10/2025
Research
DSI: Understanding the Intersections between Care Experience and Ethnicity in Criminal Justice Involvement
01/01/2022 → 30/06/2023
Research
Violence Health and Society; VISION
01/10/2021 → 30/09/2026
Research
Breaking the Care-Crime Connection: Learning from Care-Experienced Women in Prison Disrupting the Routes between Care and Custody: Learning from females in the care and criminal justice systems.
01/02/2019 → 31/03/2022
Research
DSI: Establishment of a Data Platform and Analytics Service for the Family Justice Observatory and the provision of research and results to the FJO and general public.
01/01/2019 → 30/04/2024
Research
EU: TRAFFDAT - study on the data analysis of trafficking in human beings
11/06/2018 → 10/10/2018
Research
Study on comprehensive policy review of anti-trafficking projects funded by the European Commission
01/01/2016 → 30/09/2019
Research
Trafficking: Study on the gender dimension of trafficking in human beings
31/12/2014 → 30/09/2015
Research
FIRB: Mixture and latent variable model for causal inference and analysis of socio-economic data
01/10/2013 → 30/09/2016
Research
Is the Rate of Domestic Violence Decreasing or Increasing? A Re-Analysis of the British Crime Survey
01/04/2013 → 30/09/2014
Research
Applied Quantitative Methods Network: Phase II
01/01/2013 → 30/06/2017
Research
Overview of the worldwide best practices for rape prevention & assisting women victims of rape
01/11/2012 → 31/10/2014
Research
New models and analyses for social networks and criminological careers
01/03/2012 → 31/12/2016
Research
fEC Code - Criminal Careers Within Organised Crime
01/02/2012 → …
Research
Fetal Movement and Development
01/01/2012 → 30/09/2017
Other
Gender quotas in management boards
01/01/2012 → 31/03/2012
Research
National Centre for Research Methods Node Phase 2 Lancaster - Warwick - Stirling
01/10/2008 → 31/03/2012
Research
Statistics instruction modules for purposeful learning
01/02/2007 → 30/09/2008
Research
Reconviction predictions
01/01/2007 → 15/11/2007
Research
Homicide and the Media
01/01/1997 → …
Other
How can cancer services best meet the psychosocial needs of patients and their main carers?
01/01/1997 → 31/12/2000
Other
Understanding Temporal Changes in Offending Behaviour
01/01/1997 → 31/12/1999
Other
Wiley New York (External organisation)
Membership of committee
Government Statistical Service (External organisation)
Membership of committee
British Society of Criminology (External organisation)
Membership of committee
Valutazione della Qualità della Ricerca (External organisation)
Membership of committee
European Journal of Criminology (Journal)
Editorial activity
ESRC (External organisation)
Membership of committee
Journal of Quantitative Criminology (Journal)
Editorial activity
John Howard Medal
Prize (including medals and awards)
Centre for Crime, Law and Justice
- Security Lancaster
- Security Lancaster (Sociology)
- Social and Economic Statistics