Selected Publications:

BOOK

Advanced Macroeconomics : A Primer (with A.P.L.Minford) Edward Elgar 2002.

CONTRIBUTIONS TO BOOKS

'New Classical Macroeconomics' Chapter 3 in Current Issues in Macroeconomics, pp. 45-67. (ed. D. Greenaway). Macmillan. 1990.

'Linear and Non Linear Models of Economic Time Series. An Introduction with Applications to Industrial Economics'. (with J.D. Byers). pp.227-259 in Current Issues in Industrial Economics, (ed. J.R. Cable) Basingstoke and London: Macmillan. 1993.

‘Nonlinear Adjustment towards Long-Run Money Demand: An Empirical Investigation’(with P. Michael, A.R. Nobay) pp179-190 in Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Economic and Financial Data, ",) (ed. P. Rothman ) Boston/Dordrecht/London: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1999.

‘Nonlinear Hyperinflationary Exchange Rate Dynamics: the Polish Zloty 1988-1990’ (with A. Speight) pp175-198, in Money and Macroeconomic Policy (eds. P Arestis, S Daniel and J Grahl) Edward Elgar, 1999.

‘The Favourite-Longshot bias and the Gabriel and Marsden Anomaly: an explanation based on Utility Theory’

(with M.Cain and D.Law) pp2-13 in The Economics of Gambling (ed. Leighton Vaughan Williams) Routledge 2003.

PAPERS

'The Non-Uniqueness of the Dorfman-Steiner Condition: A Note'. Economica. 1973. pp. 208-209.

'Adjustment Costs and Short-Run Returns to Labour'. The Review of Economics and Statistics 1974. pp. 373-376. (with R.W. Latham).

'The User Cost and the Preference Function'. Quarterly Journal of Economics 1975. pp. 154-156. (with R.W. Latham).

'Optimal Recruitment Advertising'. Management Science 1978. pp. 910-918. (with D. Chappell).

'Short-Run Employment Functions. Excess Supply and the Speed of Adjustment'. Economica 1978. pp. 195-202. (with I. Walker).

'Prices and Money Supply in Latin American Countries 1958-75'. Review of Economics and Statistics 1979. pp. 446-450. (with K. Holden).

'On the Political Theory of the Business Cycle'. Economics Letters 1979. pp. 327-332. (with D. Chappell).

'The Classical Supply Hypothesis and the Observational Equivalence of Classical and Keynesian Models'. Economics Letters 1979. pp. 229-233. (with A.P.L. Minford).

'Non-Uniqueness and the Role of the Monetary Authorities'. Economics Letters. 1981. pp. 25-28.

'The Microfoundation of the Phillips curve with Rational Expectations'. Oxford Economic Papers 1981. pp. 60-65. (with A.P.L. Minford).

'Some Implications of Alternative Monetary Rules in an Extension of Black's Model'. European Economic Review. 1977. pp. 260-275.

'The Tax on Wages Increases when the Firm is a Monopsonist'. The Journal of Public Economics 1977. pp. 247-53. (with R.W. Latham).

'An Empirical Investigation of Inflationary Expectations'. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 1977.pp. 291-300. (with K. Holden).

'The Behaviour of a Simple Macro Model with Endogenous Demand and Supply of Labour'. International Economic Review. 1979. pp. 381-389.

'Divergent Expectations and the Dynamic Stability of Some Simple Macro Economic Models'. The Economic Journal 1979. pp. 789-798. (with S.J. Metcalfe).

'The Natural Rate Hypothesis and Rational Expectations. A Critique of Some Recent Developments'. Oxford Economic Papers 1980. pp. 71-81. (with A.P.L. Minford).

'The Political Theory of the Business Cycle'. European Economic Review 1982. pp. 253-270. (with A.P.L. Minford).

'Growth and Inflationary Finance: Variations on a Mundellian Theme'. Journal of Political Economy 1983. pp. 880-887. (with G. Calvo).

'An Alternative Approach to Explaining Political Popularity'. Electoral Studies (1985. pp. 231-239. with K. Holden).

'Surprises in the Consumption Function, Incomplete Current Inflation and Moving Average Errors: A Note'. Economic Journal 1985. pp. 183-188. (with K. Holden).

'Forecasts and Expectations: Some Evidence for the U.K.'. Journal of Forecasting 1983. pp. 51-58. (with K. Holden).

'Some Further Empirical Evidence on Predicting Private Company Failure'. Accounting and Business Research 1988.pp(with M.J. Peel).

'Information, Prices and Efficiency in a Fixed-Odds Betting Market'. Economica. 1989. 56, pp. 323-341. (with P.F. Pope).

“A Multilogit Approach to Predicting Corporate Failure: Some UK Evidence" 1988 (with M.J. Peel), OMEGA (International Journal of Management Science), Vol. 16, No. 4, pp. 309-318, 1988.

'What Can Economists Learn from Politics and Vice-Versa'. American Economic Review - Papers and Proceedings 1986 pp62-65. (with A. Chrystal).

'On Testing for Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Forecasts'. The Manchester School 1990. pp. 121-127. (with K. Holden).

'Some Evidence on the Efficiency of the Sterling -Dollar and Sterling-Franc Forward Exchange Rates in the Inter-War Period'. Economics Letters 1991. pp. 317-322. (with J.D. Byers).

'Some Analysis of the Long-Run Time Series Properties of Consumption and Income in the UK'. Economics Letters. 1992. pp. 173-178.

'Forward Foreign Exchange Rates and Risk Premia - a Reappraisal' Journal of International Money and Finance 1991. pp. 443-456 . (with P.F. Pope).

'The German Hyperinflation and the Demand for Money Revisited'. International Economic Review 1994.pp. 1-22. (with P. Michael and A.R. Nobay).

'Testing for Non-Linear Dependence in Interwar Exchange Rates'. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 1994.pp. 391-417. (with A. Speight).

'Purchasing Power Parity Yet Again: Evidence from Spatially Separated Commodity Markets'. Journal of International Money and Finance 1996. pp.637-657. (with P. Michael and A.R. Nobay).

'Some Empirical Evidence on the Time Series Properties of Four U.K. Asset Prices'. Economica 1995. pp.405-426. (with J. Lane and E. Raeburn).

‘Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment In Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation’. Journal Of Political Economy 1997. 4, pp862-79. (with P.Michael and A.R.Nobay).

‘On Modelling Political Popularity.’ Journal Of the Royal Statistical Society, series A, 1997. pp471-490. (with D.Byers and J.Davidson).

‘Modelling Business Cycle Nonlinearity in Conditional Mean and Conditional Variance: Some International Evidence’ Economica 1998. 65, 211-229.(with A.Speight).

‘A Non-linear Error Correction Mechanism based on the Bilinear Model.’ Economics Letters 1998. pp165-170. (with J.Davidson).

‘The Slope of The Yield Curve And Real Economic Activity: Tracing The transmission Mechanism.’ Economics Letters 1998. pp 353-360. ( with M.P.Taylor).

‘A Note on Some Properties of the ESTAR Model.’. Economics 1998. pp311-315. Letters (with D.Chappell) .

‘Periodically Collapsing Stock Price Bubbles: A Robust Test’, Economics Letters 1998. pp 221-228. (with M. Taylor).

‘Rationality Testing Under Asymmetric Loss’, Economics Letters 1998. pp 49-54.( with R. Batchelor).

‘Optimal Monetary Policy with a Nonlinear Phillips Curve’, Economics Letters

2000. pp 159-164. (with A. R. Nobay).

‘Empirical evidence on the relationship between the term structure of interest rates and future real output changes when there are changes in policy regimes’, Economics Letters 2003. pp 147-152. (with C.Ioannides).

‘‘Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals.’ Journal of International Money and Finance 2000. pp 33-53. , (with M. Taylor).

‘Non-Linear Dynamics of Inflation in High Inflation Economies.’, The Manchester School, 2000, vol. 68, pp. 23-37(15) (with J.D. Byers).

‘The Dynamics of Aggregate Political Popularity: Evidence from eight countries.’ Electoral Studies, 2000, vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 49-62(14) (with J. Davidson and D.J. Byers).

‘ ‘The Favourite-Longshot Bias and Market Efficiency in UK Football betting ‘, Scottish Journal of Political Economy 2000. 47, 25-36. (with M. Cain and D.Law) .

‘Testing for statistical and market efficiency when forecast errors are non-normal: the NFL betting market revisited’, Journal of Forecasting 2000. 19, pp575-86. (with M.Cain and D.Law).

‘The Relationship between Two Indicators of Insider Trading in British Racetrack Betting’, Economica 2001.169,pp 97-104. (with M.Cain and D.Law).

‘Insider Trading, Herding Behaviour and Market Plungers in the British Horse-race Betting Market’, Economica 2002. 69,pp 327-338. (with D.Law).

‘The Favourite-Longshot Bias, Bookmaker Margins and Insider Trading in a Variety of Betting Markets’, The Economic Bulletin, 2003. 55, pp263-73. (with M.Cain and D.Law).

‘Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution To the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles’. International Economic Review, 2001,4, pp 1015-1042 (with M. Taylor and L. Sarno).

‘Covered Interest Rate Arbitrage in the Interwar Period and the Keynes-Einzig Conjecture’. Journal of Money, Credit & Banking, 2002.pp51-85. (with M.Taylor).

‘Re-examination of the predictability of economic activity using the yield spread: a nonlinear approach, International Review of Economics & Finance. 2003. (with I.Venetis and I.Paya).

‘The time series properties of financial ratios", Journal of Business Finance and Accounting.’ 2003 pp (with C.Ioannidis and M.J. Peel).

‘Optimal Discretionary Monetary Policy in a Model of Asymmetric Central Bank Preferences,’.
The Economic Journal 2003.pp657-665 (with A.R.Nobay).