Prather, M.1, M. Gauss2, T. Berntsen2,
I. Isaksen2, J. Sundet2, I. Bey3,
G. Brasseur4, F. Dentener5, R. Derwent6,
D. Stevenson6, L. Grenfell7,
D. Hauglustaine8, L. Horowitz9, D. Jacob10,
L. Mickley10, M. Lawrence11,
R. von Kuhlmann11, J.-F. Muller12,
G. Pitari13, H. Rogers14, M. Johnson14,
J. Pyle14, K. Law14, M. van Weele15,
and O. Wild16
1. Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Cambridge, U.K.
2. Meteorological Research Flight, DRA Farnborough, Hampshire, U.K.
3. Now at KFA Forschungszentrum Julich, Julich, Germany
4. School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, U.K.
1. Department of Earth System Science, UC Irvine, California, USA.
2. Institutt for Geofysikk, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
3. Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Lausanne, Switzerland.
4. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany.
5. Joint Research Centre, Environment Institute, Ispra, Italy.
6. The Hadley Centre, UK Met Office, Bracknell, United Kingdom.
7. Now at Inst. fur Meteorologie, Free Univ., Berlin, Germany.
8. Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, CEA-CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
9. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.
10. Dept of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard U., Cambridge, Mass., USA.
11. Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany.
12. Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, Brussels, Belgium.
13. Dipartimento di Fisica, U.L'Aquila, Coppito, L'Aquila, Italy.
14. Centre for Atmos. Sci., Cambridge U., Cambridge, United Kingdom.
15. Royal Netherlands Meteorological Inst., De Bilt, The Netherlands.
16. Frontier Research System for Global Change, Yokohama, Japan.
[1] Ozone is an air quality problem today for much of the world's population. Regions can exceed the ozone air quality standards (AQS) through a combination of local emissions, meteorology favoring pollution episodes, and the clean-air baseline levels of ozone upon which pollution builds. The IPCC 2001 assessment studied a range of global emission scenarios and found that all but one projects increases in global tropospheric ozone during the 21st century. By 2030, near-surface increases over much of the northern hemisphere are estimated to be about 5 ppb (+2 to +7 ppb over the range of scenarios). By 2100 the two more extreme scenarios project baseline ozone increases of >20 ppb, while the other four scenarios give changes of -4 to +10 ppb. Even modest increases in the background abundance of tropospheric ozone might defeat current AQS strategies. The larger increases, however, would gravely threaten both urban and rural air quality over most of the northern hemisphere.
Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1100, doi:10.1029/2002GL016285, 2003 (PDF, 0.3 Mb)
(Submitted: 15 September 2002; Revised: 3 December 2002; Accepted: 17 December 2002; Published 31 January 2003)