Every managerial decision concerned with future actions is based upon a prediction of some aspects of the future. Therefore, forecasting plays a vital role in enhancing managerial decision-making.
After introducing the topic of forecasting in organisations, time series patterns and simple forecasting methods (naïve and moving averages) are explored. Then, the extrapolative forecasting methods of exponential smoothing and ARIMA models are considered. A detailed treatment of causal modelling follows, with a full evaluation of the estimated models. Forecasting applications in operations and marketing are then discussed. The module ends with an examination of judgmental forecasting and how forecasting can best be improved in an organisational context. Assessment is through a report aimed at extending and evaluating student learning in causal modelling and time series analysis.