The pandemic has wrought unparalleled disruption to the economy. In setting out plans to address this through today’s Comprehensive Spending Review, the Chancellor Rishi Sunak underlined that “the economic emergency has only just begun”. There are already 782,000 fewer employees on payroll now than in March, and it’s unlikely that all jobs currently subsidised by the furlough scheme will endure after it ends next year, with the OBR forecasting an unemployment peak of more than 7% next year.

In anticipation of this, the Chancellor has announced the launch of a new employment support scheme, Restart, which will offer support for individuals who have been out of work for a year or more, alongside additional funding to increase capacity at Jobcentre Plus.

The programme will run alongside other support announced earlier this autumn, including the Job Entry: Targeted Support programme supporting those out of work for more than three months, and support for younger people with subsidised placements through the Kickstart scheme.

With nearly £3 billion in funding, the DWP is aiming for Restart to support one million people back to work over the next three years.

It’s crucial that the design of this new programme reflects lessons learned from similar employment support programmes in order to meet the needs of different people. The Work Programme, launched following the financial crisis, offered targeted support to those in the same circumstances as the new Restart scheme. Analysis published yesterday by DWP reports that the programme delivered a good return on investment for both the Government and taxpayers.

But this analysis doesn’t include data on individuals who face the greatest barriers in joining or re-entering the labour market; disabled people, younger workers, carers or parents of young children. Just 16% of disabled people referred to the Work Programme moved in to work. Evaluations found the programme was structured to incentivise supporting those already closer to the labour market over those for individuals who may need more specialist or intensive support.

In implementing these programmes, it’s essential that the department develops employment support offers that meets the needs of different groups. Individuals who were had already faced a longer period out of work when this crisis hit, or those who would face barriers to entering work – disabled people, younger people, older workers – may miss out on employment opportunities as competitions for roles increases and employers have a larger talent pool to choose from.

In addition, increasing access to skills development and training will be key to supporting people to progress in work or return to the labour market. The previously announced Lifetime Skills Guarantee is a positive step forward, but our analysis suggests 1.4 million low paid mid-career workers will be shut out from the scheme as the eligibility criteria are drawn too tightly. Millions more will struggle to access the scheme because the pandemic is exacerbating financial and family pressures, and those in the welfare system face rigid rules in terms of how much time they can spend engaging in training and adult learning.

This matters because in such an uncertain economy where insecurity is rising, improving your skills and engaging in training is an important way you can move into better paid, more secure employment in the future.

The Government should urgently review the eligibility criteria for the Lifetime Skills Guarantee and training restrictions for those receiving welfare payments, alongside offering targeted support to help people with the indirect costs of engaging in training such as childcare. Millions of families are facing tough times financially, and Government must do everything it can to ensure training and skills development is a viable option for them in the months ahead.

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