Lucy E. Morgan
Development Lecturer - Simulation and Stochastic Modelling Lancaster University Management School

A49a, Department of Management Science
Lancaster Univeristy, Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4YX, United Kingdom
l.e.morgan "at"

Research Interests

My research lies in the area of uncertainty quantification in computer simulation and bridges both the discipline of Management Science and Statistics. My main reasearch interest is input uncertainty quantification with a focus on simulation models with non-stationary Poisson arrival processes. Input uncertainty describes the error that arises in the output performance measures of a simulation experiment caused by estimating the input distributions and processes that drive it. When these inputs are estimated from observations of a real-world system input uncertainty is inevitable as we can only ever collect a finite number of observations.

I studied for my PhD at the STOR-i Centre for Doctoral Training at Lancaster University under the supervision of Professor Barry L. Nelson, Dr David Worthington and Dr Andrew Titman. My thesis entitled - "Quantifying and Reducing Input Modelling Error in Simulation" - was submitted in December 2018.


Input Uncertainty Quantification for Simulation Models with Piecewise-constant Non-stationary Poisson Arrival Processes - 2016 Winter Simulation Conference - paper.

Detecting Bias due to Input Modelling in Computer Simulation - 2017 Winter Simulation Conference - paper.

Conferences, Workshops and Meetings