Home page for accesible maths 8.5 Confidence intervals for the regression coefficients

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8.6 Summary

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  • 1

    The least squares estimator β^=(X′⁢X)-1⁢X′⁢Y is a random variable, since it is a function of the random variable Y.

  • 2

    To obtain a sampling distribution for β^ we write

    β^=A⁢Y

    where A=(X′⁢X)-1⁢X′ and so β^ is a linear combination of n normal random variables Y1,…,Yn.

  • 3

    From this it follows that the sampling distribution is

    β^∼Normal⁡(β,σ2⁢(X′⁢X)-1).
  • 4

    We can use this distribution to calculate confidence intervals or conduct hypothesis tests for the regression coefficients.

  • 5

    The most frequent hypothesis test is to see whether or not a covariate has a ‘significant effect’ on the response variable. We can test this by testing

    H0:βj=0

    vs.

    H1:βj≠0.

    A one-sided alternative can be used if there is some prior belief about whether the relationship should be positive or negative.

  • 6

    In a similar way, a sampling distribution can be derived for linear combinations of the regression coefficients a′⁢β^:

    a′⁢β^∼Normal⁡(a′⁢β,σ2⁢a′⁢(X′⁢X)-1⁢a).