Antimicrobially resistant (AMR) bacteria are those for which antibiotics are significantly less effective than expected. The spread of AMR bacteria is a major and increasing global public health concern, as the introduction of any new antibiotic eventually leads to the spread of resistant bacteria. We will be mathematically modelling the transmission of AMR bacteria through open populations, and using data to learn about the underlying properties of the bacteria (e.g., rate of transmission). Performing this kind of inference is often complicated by incomplete data — we do not always know when an individual has been infected (only when they develop symptoms), and test results are not always 100% accurate.
This project is part of TRACS-Liverpool (tracking anti-microbial resistance across care settings in Liverpool), a collaboration between Lancaster University, University of Liverpool, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, and Unilever. TRACS will be investigating the spread of AMR bacteria in the North West of England, collecting data from hospitals, care homes, and across the community (since people in care settings are at particular risk of AMR-related infection). In order to explain the transmission of AMR bacteria through open populations, we will be developing novel models and inference methods, which we can use to analyse the TRACS data. We will start by developing methods for small-scale settings, such as hospitals and care homes, then develop methods for open settings, such as the wider Liverpool area.