LANCASTER UNIVERSITY 2022 UNDERGRADUATE RESEARCH CONFERENCE
15th MARCH - 17th MARCH 2022
Joanna Meacham

Joanna Meacham

Psychology (Bailrigg) | Year 4 | Degree: Psychology (Study Abroad) BSc Hons
Generating multiple not-so-random numbers

Previous psychological research has found that several patterns and frequent errors emerge when individuals are asked to think of a random number, suggesting that responses are not chosen randomly. Analysing these patterns can provide insight into the way that instructions are interpreted, and decisions are made.
The current study explored this further through several novel components. First, asking for multiple four-digit numbers enabled consistency and variation in decision choice structure to be investigated. Second, collecting online responses rather than spoken responses used in past research allowed exploration of responses when respondents have a keypad to emphasis the available numerical values. Third, varying question format to consider how individuals formulate and interpret the question for the purpose of constructing a response. Fourth, comparing performance with a different question known to generate what is called the “Moses Illusion”, an error of question interpretation, to explore whether similar cognitive processes may be implicated in both tasks.
Almost 500 complete participant responses provided a rich data set available for statistical analysis. For example, initial number choice was shown to constrain later choices, whilst question format had little impact on response values. The study points to several conclusions about the nature of open-ended decision making.

Joanna Meacham
More information
Joanna Meacham

Joanna Meacham

Psychology (Bailrigg) | Year 4 | Degree: Psychology (Study Abroad) BSc Hons
Generating multiple not-so-random numbers

What would you say if you were asked to...

Pick a number that comes to mind between 1,000 and 10,000
Pick a number that comes to mind between 1,000 and 10,000

My study asked a question like the one above to a large number of participants to investigate whether people give similar responses.

I also asked participants this question another three times, to see whether people give consistent responses, or if they try to choose different numbers.

Why? Previous psychological research has found that several patterns, and frequent errors, emerge when individuals are asked to think of a random number, suggesting that responses are not chosen randomly. Analysing these patterns can provide insight into the way that instructions are interpreted, and decisions are made. This study extended this area of research by investigating several novel components, including the effects of asking the same participants to give a second, third, and forth response.
Why? Previous psychological research has found that several patterns, and frequent errors, emerge when individuals are asked to think of a random number, suggesting that responses are not chosen randomly. Analysing these patterns can provide insight into the way that instructions are interpreted, and decisions are made. This study extended this area of research by investigating several novel components, including the effects of asking the same participants to give a second, third, and forth response.
How? Participants were asked to provide four numbers between 1,000 and 10,000 via an online questionnaire. Half of the participants were told at the start of the study that they would have to give four numbers, the rest were not. Half of the participants also saw the question written with digits (e.g. 1,000) while the other half saw the number boundaries written in words (e.g. one thousand) Participants were also asked a question known to generate what is called the “Moses Illusion”. A total of 482 complete responses were collected and analysed in order to address the five research questions below.
How? Participants were asked to provide four numbers between 1,000 and 10,000 via an online questionnaire. Half of the participants were told at the start of the study that they would have to give four numbers, the rest were not. Half of the participants also saw the question written with digits (e.g. 1,000) while the other half saw the number boundaries written in words (e.g. one thousand) Participants were also asked a question known to generate what is called the “Moses Illusion”. A total of 482 complete responses were collected and analysed in order to address the five research questions below.
The Moses Illusion by Erickson & Mattson (1981) asks: How many animals of each kind did Moses take onto the ark? This question should ask about the story of Noah’s ark, however “Noah” was swapped with a similar, but different name (Moses). Over 75% of participants answered this question without noticing the switch.
The Moses Illusion by Erickson & Mattson (1981) asks: How many animals of each kind did Moses take onto the ark? This question should ask about the story of Noah’s ark, however “Noah” was swapped with a similar, but different name (Moses). Over 75% of participants answered this question without noticing the switch.
The Moses Illusion by Erickson & Mattson (1981) asks: How many animals of each kind did Moses take onto the ark? This question should ask about the story of Noah’s ark, however “Noah” was swapped with a similar, but different name (Moses). Over 75% of participants answered this question without noticing the switch.
The Moses Illusion by Erickson & Mattson (1981) asks: How many animals of each kind did Moses take onto the ark? This question should ask about the story of Noah’s ark, however “Noah” was swapped with a similar, but different name (Moses). Over 75% of participants answered this question without noticing the switch.
1. Do participants generate similar numbers when asked to give a second, third and fourth response? Yes Participants preferred to give numbers with the same format (e.g. numbers with no zeros, or numbers with three zeros). However, the magnitude of their responses varied when asked for a second, third, or fourth number.
1. Do participants generate similar numbers when asked to give a second, third and fourth response? Yes Participants preferred to give numbers with the same format (e.g. numbers with no zeros, or numbers with three zeros). However, the magnitude of their responses varied when asked for a second, third, or fourth number.
2. Do number generation patterns found in an online study match those found in previous face-to-face research? Yes & No There was a preference for numbers starting with 1,000, and the number 5,000, as was found by Kubovy (1977) and Scott et al. (2001) However, more participants gave fully elaborated numbers, without any zeros, in this study compared to face-to-face research
2. Do number generation patterns found in an online study match those found in previous face-to-face research? Yes & No There was a preference for numbers starting with 1,000, and the number 5,000, as was found by Kubovy (1977) and Scott et al. (2001) However, more participants gave fully elaborated numbers, without any zeros, in this study compared to face-to-face research
3. Does writing the question boundaries using words or digits affect responses? No How the question was presented did not significantly affect the size or format of responses given. The majority of participants entered their responses using numerical digits, rather than words, regardless of condition.
3. Does writing the question boundaries using words or digits affect responses? No How the question was presented did not significantly affect the size or format of responses given. The majority of participants entered their responses using numerical digits, rather than words, regardless of condition.
5. Are responses in number generation tasks associated with responses to the Moses Illusion? No This study found no association between making a mistake on the number generation task and falling for the Moses illusion.
5. Are responses in number generation tasks associated with responses to the Moses Illusion? No This study found no association between making a mistake on the number generation task and falling for the Moses illusion.
Implications This study has several key findings that can help to further explain how numbers are represented in our minds, and how we interpret questions and make decisions. Some suggestions are made as to how existing theories of number generation should be adapted to include findings from this study asking for multiple numbers, such as increasing the emphasis on response format. It also suggests that digital surveys are a valid methodology that could be used in future studies on this topic. Additional important considerations have also been identified that could be explored in future research to further increase understanding of decision making.
Implications This study has several key findings that can help to further explain how numbers are represented in our minds, and how we interpret questions and make decisions. Some suggestions are made as to how existing theories of number generation should be adapted to include findings from this study asking for multiple numbers, such as increasing the emphasis on response format. It also suggests that digital surveys are a valid methodology that could be used in future studies on this topic. Additional important considerations have also been identified that could be explored in future research to further increase understanding of decision making.

References

Erickson, T. D., & Mattson, M. E. (1981). From words to meaning: A semantic illusion. Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior, 20(5), 540-551. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-5371(81)90165-1

Kubovy, M. (1977). Response availability and the apparent spontaneity of numerical choices. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 3(2), 359. https://doi.org/10.1037/0096-1523.3.2.359

Scott, S. K., Barnard, P. J., & May, J. (2001). Specifying executive representations and processes in number generation tasks. The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology: Section A, 54(3), 641-664. https://doi.org/10.1080/713755994

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