EPOP2013 Elections, Public Opinion and Parties Lancaster University Home Page
13-15 September 2013, Lancaster University UK
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Programme for the EPOP Conference


Friday 13th September 2013


Pre-EPOP workshop:

‘Studying Electoral Competition: Methodological Challenges in Cross-National Research’

This is one of a series of workshops we have organized as part of an ESRC-funded project: “Comparative Cross-National Electoral Research” (CCNER).

It is directed towards postgraduate students and younger scholars who conduct cross-national research in the area of electoral studies and comparative party politics, with a particular focus on electoral competitiveness and its impact on public confidence, media coverage, political attitudes, and voter turnout. In the first session, participants would attend presentations on core methodological issues by Professor Paul Kellstedt (Texas A&M) and Professor Susan Banducci (Exeter). In the second session, participants will have the opportunity to present their work and receive feedback from Kelldstedt and Banducci in the area of comparative politics.



Registration and buffet lunch (conference centre foyer)


MR1: Referendums/the Scottish referendum 1

Chair: Christopher Carman

‘An Informed `No’: Voting Behaviour in the Irish Fiscal Compact Referendum’
Leonardo Baccini (LSE) and Maria Laura Sudulich (European University Institute)

‘Campaign Dynamics in Secession Referendums: Quebec and Scotland under the microscope’
Stephen Quinlan and Mark Shephard (Strathclyde)

 ‘Information availability and information use in direct democracy: Can voters cope with direct democracy?’
Shaun Bowler (California)

MR2: Electoral Systems

Chair: Alastair Clark

‘Monotonicity and non-monotonicity at elections under PR-STV’
 Michael Gallagher (Trinity College Dublin)

 ‘Centrifugal or Centripetal? The Effect of Preferential Electoral Systems’
Kevin Cunningham ( Trinity College, Dublin)

‘Electoral system change and reshaping the political spectrum – When does it happen?’
Rubén Ruiz-Rufino (King’s College London)

MR3: Turnout 1

Chair: Tony Mughan

‘Voting Together:  Is Electoral Turnout a Social Activity?’
Edward Fieldhouse (Manchester), David Cutts (Bath), Laurence Lessard-Phillips and Diego Garcia

‘The Mobilization effects of partisan cues. Evidence from a Randomised Field Experiment in the UK’
Florian Foos (Nuffield College, Oxford ) and  Eline de Rooij (Simon Fraser)

‘Priority Congruence, Turnout, and the Moderating Role of Partisanship’
Stefanie Reher (Nuffield College, Oxford )

MR4: Gender

Chair: Kirsti Winters

‘Contextual Determinants of the Latin American Gender Gap in Political knowledge’
Marta Fraile (CSIC) and Raul Gómez (Derby)

‘Glass ceilings or glass partitions? Measuring women’s executive presence in the UK’
Peter Allen (Birkbeck)

‘Gender Differentiation in Opinion Headscarves: The Role of Interviewer Effects’
 Ali Carkoglu (Koc) and Susan A. Banducci (Exeter)

‘Is there a Demand for Reform? Examining Attitudes about Women’s Underrepresentation’
Maarja Lühiste (Leicester) Jeffrey Karp(ANU)




MR1: Referendums/the Scottish referendum 2

Chair: Christopher Carman

‘Public Attitudes towards Scotland’s Constitutional Future: A Question of Head or Heart?’
John Curtice (Strathclyde) and Rachel Ormston (ScotCen Social Research)

‘Social Media Discourse on the 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum Campaign: Who, What, and with What Impact? ‘
Mark Shephard, Stephen Quinlan, Stephen Tagg  (Strathclyde) and Lindsay Paterson (Edinburgh)

‘An Uncertain Outcome? Determining Electors’ Views on Scotland’s Constitutional Future’
James Gilmour (Electoral Reform Society Scotland)

MR2: Electoral systems and parties
Chair: Alastair Clark

‘Candidate gender and electoral outcomes in a preferential voting system: district level effects’
Michael Marsh and Gail McElroy (Trinity College Dublin)

‘Electoral Rule Disproportionality and Platform Polarization’
Konstantinos Matakos (Rochester) Orestis Troumpounisy (Madrid,) and Dimitrios Xefterisz (Cyprus)

‘Disproportionality and bias and party competition in Indian Electoral Politics’
Alistair McMillan (Sheffield)

MR3: Turnout 2

Chair:  Tony Mughan

‘Understanding Local Turnout in a Compulsory Voting Setting’
Régis Dandoy (Zurich)

‘Does Corruption Suppress Voter Turnout? A Multilevel Analysis of 38 Countries’
Stefan Dahlberg and Maria Solevid (Gothenburg)

‘A tale of sinful cities and virtuous villages? A spatial and socioeconomic investigation of turnout decline under compulsory voting in Belgium’
Yves Dejaeghere (Leuven) and Bram Vanhoutte (Manchester)

‘Formal Education and Political Inequality in Europe: a Multi-level Path Modelling Approach’
Florian Rabuza (Duisburg-Essen)


MR1: Discussion of suggestion that EPOP members should produce a guide to the next general election

Philip Cowley (Nottingham) and Rob Ford (Manchester)

MR2: Political Opinion and Attitudes 1
Chair: Stefanie Reher

‘Shadows of Past Regimes: Authoritarianism, Priming, and the Formation of Ideology in New Democracies’
Elias Dinas (Nottingham) and Ksenia Northmore-Ball (Oxford)

‘Governmental responsiveness to public opinion after ‘external shocks’. A case study of nuclear energy policy after the Fukushima disaster’
Laura Morales, Daniel Bischof, Luca Bernardi and Maarja Lühiste (Leicester)

MR3: Political protest
Chair: Cristina Leston-Bandeira

‘Residues of the Student Movement in Japan:  Formative Experiences or Lifelong Learning?”
Rieko Kage (Tokyo)

‘Does It Pay to Protest? A Large N-analysis of Citizens’ Complaints against Facility Sitings’
Peter Esaiasson (Gothenburg)

MR4: An interesting miscellany
Chair: David Denver

‘The Dynamic Relationship between Consumer Sentiment and Spending: The Recessionary Effect’
Paul Kellstedt (Texas A&M)

‘Civility 2.0: A Comparative Analysis of Incivility in Online Political Discussion’
Ian Rowe (Kent)





Reception (The Lounge and Quadrangle, County College). This reception is kindly sponsored by Parliamentary Affairs


Dinner (County College)

Saturday 14th September 2013


Breakfast (Refuel at County)


MR1: Campaigning 1

Chair: Michael Marsh

‘The Timeline of Election Campaigns: A Comparative Perspective’
Will Jennings (Southampton) and Christopher Wlezien (Texas)

‘Internet use in campaigning in Finland’
Kim Strandberg (Åbo Akademi University, Finland)

‘Campaign effectiveness in comparative perspective’
Maria Laura Sudulich (European University Institute)

MR2: Participation and expectations
Chair:  Charles Pattie

Ideals and actions: Do citizens’ patterns of political participation correspond to their process preferences?
Åsa Bengtsson & Henrik Serup Christensen (Åbo Akademi University)

‘Two dimensions of citizens’ feelings of responsiveness: regime and incumbent responsiveness’
AnnKristin Kölln (Twente) and Peter Esaiasson Gothenburg)

‘Exploring Political Disappointment’
Ben Seyd (Kent)

MR3: The right in Britain
Chair: Philip Cowley

‘The populist beauty and the fascist beast? Comparing the support bases of UKIP and the BNP’
Anders Widfeldt and Heinz Brandenburg (Aberdeen)

‘Revolt on the Right: Understanding support for the UK Independence Party and the British National Party’
Robert Ford (Manchester) and Matthew Goodwin (Nottingham)

‘UKIP candidates and policy positions in the 2013 English local elections’
M. Thrasher, G. Borisyuk, C. Rallings, M. Shears & M. Turner (Plymouth)

MR4: Political Opinion and Attitudes 2
Chair: Ailsa Henderson
‘Torturing the truth out of respondents: Survey experiments gauging US public support for ‘enhanced interrogation’’
Elena Pupaza and Robert Johns (Essex)

‘Framing of Foreign Aid: Survey Experiments in the US and UK’
Jason Reifler (Exeter) and Thomas J. Scotto (Essex)

 ‘England and its Two Unions’
Charlie Jeffery (Edinburgh,) Guy Lodge (IPPR,) Roger Scully (Cardiff )and  Richard Wyn Jones (Cardiff )




MR1: Campaigning 2
Chair: Jon Tonge

 ‘Does campaign contact mobilise individual voters? A quasi-experimental approach’
Charles Pattie (Sheffield), Adam Whitworth (Sheffield) and Ron Johnston (Bristol)

‘What makes a successful local electoral campaign? Evidence from local government elections 2006-2013’
Michael Turner (Plymouth)

‘Experts, Activists, and the Disproportional Influence of Opinion Leaders in Election Campaigns’
Robert Huckfeldt (California, Davis)

MR2:  MPs and Parliaments 1
Chair: Ben Seyd
‘When do the cockroaches become local? Identifying local candidates’
Philip Cowley (Nottingham) and Rosie Campbell (Birkbeck)

‘House or Home? Constituent preferences over representative activities’
Nick Vivyan (Durham) and Markus Wagner (Vienna)

‘What characterises a good MP? Public and Parliamentarians views compared’
Rosie Campbell and Joni Lovenduski (Birkbeck)

MR3: Comparative elections 1
Chair: Roger Scully

‘Policy Priorities and Ideology in Europe: A Study of the Ideological Associations of Issue Priorities and Ideological Consistency amongst Voters and Candidates’
Stefanie Reher (Nuffield)
‘The Influence of Contextual Economic Indicators on Religious Voting in Contemporary Europe’
 Stefanie Reher and Sarah Wilkins-Laflamme (Nuffield)
 ‘Voters, Parties, and Issue Attention’
Heike Kluever (Bamberg) Jae-Jae Spoon (North Texas) 
MR4: Methods
Chair:  Michael Thrasher

‘A Political Science Example of the Orthogonal Re-Parameterisation Approach to Estimating a Dynamic Panel model with Fixed Effects ‘
Mark Pickup (Simon Fraser) and Geoffrey Evans (Oxford)

‘A New Measure of Perceived Responsiveness – Psychometric Evidence from
Population Based Survey‐Experiments in the Netherlands and Sweden’
AnnKristin Kölln (Twente), Peter Esaiasson (Gothenburg) and Sedef Turper( Twente)

 ‘A statistical model to transform election poll proportions into representatives: The Spanish case’
 Jose M. Pavía  (Valencia)


Buffet Lunch (Conference Centre)


EPOP Annual General Meeting (MR1)


MR1: Parties 1
Chair: Rob Ford

‘Party Membership Matters’
Lynn Bennie (Aberdeen)

‘Still For God and Ulster?  A Membership Survey of the Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland’
Jon Tonge (Liverpool) and Raul Gomez (Derby)
‘The Form and Function of Party Conferences: a heuristic case study of Denmark’
 Robin Pettitt (Kingston)

MR2:  MPs and Parliaments 2
Chair: Mark Garnett

‘The public won’t stand for it – or will they?  Attitudes to job-sharing MPs’
Rosie Campbell  (Birkbeck) and Philip Cowley(Nottingham)

 ‘All change but still the same? The professionalisation of politics in Britain’
Peter Allen and Rosie Campbell  (Birkbeck) 

MR3: Comparative elections 2
Chair: Rob Johns

‘Real Choices: Does It Matter What’s On The Ballot?’
Lawrence LeDuc (Toronto)

‘A values based electorate?’; What role does electoral context (both geographical and chronological) have in defining the way in which individual values structure voter choice preferences?
Thomas Loughran (Manchester)

‘What Can We Learn from Weird Elections?’
D. Roderick Kiewiet (California Inst. of Technology) and Ines Levin (University of Georgia)

MR4: Election Administration 1
Chair: David Denver

‘Public Administration and the Electoral Process in the 2010 British General Election’
Alistair Clark (Newcastle)

‘Party Funding - talking transparency’
Steve Goodrich (Electoral Commission)

‘The move to individual electoral registration - the transitional stage’
 Gemma Rosenblatt and Phil Thompson (Electoral Commission)




MR1: Parties 2
Chair: Gail McElroy

‘Explaining the salience of decentralization in party competition’
Simon Toubeau (CEPC) and Markus Wagner (Vienna)

‘Duverger’s Law and Information: The Role of Media Availability in the Relationship Between Electoral and Party System’
Emily Clough (Newcastle)

‘How Many Parties? A More Sensitive Approach to Measuring the Effective Number of Parties’
Zachary Greene  and Shaun Bevan (Mannheim)

MR2:  MPs and Parliaments 3
Chair: Rosie Campbell

‘Social media and parliaments: speaking the same language?’
Cristina Leston-Bandeira (Hull)

‘The Early Day Motions on minority-related issues: Using text as data of Jewish and Muslim parliamentary representation’
Ekaterina Kolpinskaya (Nottingham)

MR3: Comparative elections 3
Chair: Jane Green

‘Economic Voting in Decentralised Countries’
Sandra Leon (York) Ignacio Jurado (Manchester)

‘Why do people vote for a party that does not represent them?’
Gabriela Borz (Aberdeen)

‘Voting intention stability in a multiparty setting: A two-wave panel study among adolescents and their parents in Belgium’
Joris Boonen (Leuven)

MR4: Election Administration 2
Chair: Charles Pattie

‘Electoral Law - the chance for change’
Tom Hawthorn (Electoral Commission)

‘Scottish Local Government Elections Inquiry: Review of Options for Improving Voter Representation’
James Gilmour (Electoral Reform Society Scotland)

‘Does Spending on Elections Matter for Election Quality?’
Alistair Clark (Newcastle)


Plans for the next British Election Study: The new BES team will present their plans, including procedures for consultation with colleagues.

18.30 - 19:15

Reception (The Lounge and Quadrangle, County College). This reception is kindly sponsored by YouGov.


Conference Dinner (County College)
Followed by the annual EPOP quiz with Professors Cowley and Fisher.


Sunday 15th September 2013


Breakfast (Refuel at County)


Session 8: 9.30-11.00

MR1: Elections and Voters in Britain 1
Chair: Cees Van der Eijk

‘Ed Miliband: A 360 degree view’
Roger Mortimore (King’s London & Ipsos MORI), Simon Atkinson (Ipsos MORI) and Tomasz Mludzinski (Ipsos MORI)

'Social Change and the Evolution of the British Electorate’
Stuart Fox (Nottingham)

‘Tactical voting in England: Constituency marginality and distance from contention’
Stephen D Fisher (Oxford) and David P Myatt (London Business School) 

MR2: European Public Opinion 1
Chair: Robin Pettit

‘A multilevel analysis of public support for development across the European Union’
Jennifer vanHeerde-Hudson and David Hudson (UCL)

“It’s nice to know that you’re close at hand”: Representational distances and satisfaction with democracy across Europe
Robert Johns (Essex) Heinz Brandenburg (Strathclyde) and Marcel van Egmond (Amsterdam)

‘Types of Regions: A Comparison of Public Attitudes to Regional and National Government in Fourteen European Regions’
Ailsa Henderson, Charlie Jeffery (both Edinburgh),  Daniel Wincott and, Richard Wyn Jones (Cardiff)

MR3: Ethnicity: participation and representation 1
Chair: Lynn Bennie

‘Which diversity? Political involvement in heterogeneous contexts’
Mariana Skirmuntt (Essex)

‘The effect of immigrant residential concentration and party competition on the representation of immigrant-origin minorities at the local level’
Santiago Pérez-Nievas (Madrid), Cristina Daniela Vintila (CSIC Madrid), Laura Morales (Leicester) and Maarja Lühiste (Leicester).

MR4: Local elections

Chair:  Colin Rallings 

‘’Gimme your name and I’ll tell you who you are’ An exploration of the name of local lists’
Min Reuchamps (Louvain) Régis Dandoy (Zürich) Jérémy Dodeigne (Liège & Louvain) Geoffroy Matagne (Liège)

‘Partisan Context and the Structure of the Vote in Mayoral Elections’
Thomas M. Holbrook (Wisconsin)

‘Establishing the list in local elections: the case of non-partisan and citizens politicians candidates in the 2012 Walloon elections’
Jérémy Dodeigne  (Liège) Min Reuchamps (Louvain) Régis Dandoy (Zürich) Geoffroy Matagne (Liège)




MR1: Elections and Voters in Britain 2
Chair: Ed Fieldhouse

‘Asymmetric Evaluations: Government Popularity and Economic Performance in the United Kingdom’
Roland Kappe (UCL)

'Green Shoots of Recovery? Assessing Liberal Democrat Electoral Performance' 
David Cutts (Bath) and Elizabeth Evans (Bristol)

‘Three Approaches to Gauging Media Effects’
Susan Banducci (Exeter), Jason Barabas (Stony Brook), Jennifer Jerit (Stony Brook), Martijn Schoonvelde (Exeter), Daniel Stevens (Exeter)

‘Perceptions of party competence and issue proximity over time – Evidence from the 2005-2010 BES panel study’
Markus Wagner and Julian Aichholzer (Vienna) 

MR2: European Public Opinion 2
Chair: Jennifer Van Heerde-Hudson

‘Citizenship and Policy in Multilevel Europe’
Ailsa Henderson, Charlie Jeffery (Edinburgh), Daniel Wincot and Richard Wyn Jones (Cardiff)

‘Political Tolerance: A Media Systems Approach’
Yphtach Lelkes (Amsterdam) 

MR3: Ethnicity: participation and representation 2
Chair: Mark Garnett

‘Incumbency, votes and electoral outcomes: Examining the effects of candidate ethnic origins on party performance in local elections’
G.  Borisyuk, C. Rallings, M. Thrasher, R. Webber (Plymouth)

 ‘Where you come from, what you know and why you come: disaggregating the effects of region of origin, migrant characteristics and migration type on British reactions to immigrants’
Robert Ford (University of Manchester) Anthony Heath (Manchester and Oxford)


Conference End: Buffet Lunch (Conference Centre)







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