Can we rely on judgment to select the best forecasting model?
How does judgmental model selection perform compared to statistical model selection? Fotios Petropoulos and Nikolaos Kourentzes of the Lancaster Centre for Forecasting explain.
Judgmental forecasting experiment: your chance to win £50
The Lancaster Centre for Forecasting invites you to participate in a web-based judgmental forecasting exercise. You are asked to select the best model, based on your judgment, for 32 time series.
Business Insights into Forecasting with SAP-APO DP
The Lancaster Centre for Forecasting organised another successful workshop on "Forecasting with SAP® APO DP" held 30 October 2013 at the Work Foundation in London, and free to attend for all practitioners and academics in forecasting and demand planning.
Dr Sven F. Crone presented at the premier international conference on Neural Networks
The International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN) is the premier international conference in the area of neural networks. Dr Crone was among the list of presenters at the conference.
Selecting the best model for improving forecasting performance
A major issue in forecasting is the selection of an appropriate model. Practitioners and forecasters regularly face this problem, having to choose a priori the best model from a set of alternatives. This becomes even more interesting, given that if the selection was to be done perfectly then the gains would be substantial (25-30% improvement in forecasting performance).
Zero hour contracts and employer flexibility: the role of forecasting
Employers, say the Institute of Directors (IoD), need zero hour contracts to meet the organisation's varying demand. But much of demand is predictable - this includes hourly, daily and weekly seasonal patterns, holidays and some special events.