NERC Quantifying the likely magnitude of nature-based flood mitigation effects across large catchments (Q-NFM)
Project duration: 1st Nov 2017 to 31st Mar 2023
Grant: NERC NE/R004722/1
Nick Chappell (PI), Keith Beven, John Quinton, Rob Lamb, Phil Haygarth, Barry Hankin, Trevor Page, Peter Metcalfe, Ann Kretzschmar, Paul Smith, David Mindham (Lancaster University), David Johnson (Rivers Trust subcontract) and Steve Rose (JBA subcontract)
How much can natural measures reduce flooding at large scales? To answer this question over the next three years the Q-NFM investigator team will work in three large Cumbrian catchments ('test basins'), the Eden, Derwent and Kent (see Task 3) with their partners who are delivering NFM interventions (see Task 7). The project has seven tasks that will build a scientifically credible, shared understanding of the role that Natural Flood Management (NFM) could play in reducing flood risk in the UK and locally in Cumbria (the test region). Task 7 relies on the expertise and experience gained by partner organisations and both informs Task 4-6 modelling and provides a means of sharing findings from across the project.
Q-NFM micro-basin flume @ Fellgill Sike with Woodland Trust partner together with ensemble simulations from earlier Life-IP development project
We have seven objectives:
Objective 1: To develop a Catchment-Change-Database (CCD) summarising the experimental evidence on NFM-relevant changes in hydrological parameters and variables in the UK context. The underlying systematic review of the primary literature will identify critical evidence gaps to be addressed with the experimental programme. Moreover these change data will be associated with confidence-weights based on data quality, evidence-strength, transferability etc. so that they can be incorporated into our modelling framework
Objective 2: To establish a network of experimental sites (paired-plots and micro-basins) to allow us to constrain spatially-explicit model estimates (using observed soil-moisture and flows) across the large test basins in Cumbria; to evaluate the relationship between effective-model-parameters and plot-measured parameters; to address critical gaps in parameter-change-data (supplementing the CCD); and demonstrate local NFM-benefits to local stakeholders.
Objective 3: To demonstrate that our modelling tool, Dynamic-Topmodel, is able to simulate observed-sequences of flood-events (and low-flows) in a physically reasonable way and to identify a baseline ensemble of acceptable simulations representing simulation uncertainties.
Objective 4: To utilise the CCD with weighted-evidence on NFM-related shifts in model-parameters for multiple scenarios to re-run the acceptable simulations of observed sequences of flood-events and event sets. The central objective is to demonstrate the likely magnitude of effect of NFM-interventions across 3 large test catchments.
Objective 5: To define sets of NFM scenarios for simulations across 3 large test catchments
Objective 6: To quantify NFM system performance, including risk of NFM failure and temporal changes in NFM feature effectiveness
Objective 7: To co-develop with partners scenarios of NFM extent and preferred location, translate complex environmental science into practice, and provide the basis for partner-developed national NFM mapping.
News
Q-NFM programme starts on 1 Nov 2017
@NERC_QNFM