Sir Keir Starmer has struck a measured tone since securing the leadership of the Labour Party. With the Covid-19 crisis having subsumed the ‘business as usual’ of party politics, Starmer has pledged to work constructively with Government to help guide the country out of the current crisis - yet still scrutinising and challenging their handling of the epidemic where necessary.

However, as focus shifts over the coming months to the longer term social and economic impacts of COVID-19, a much larger conversation about the state of our public services and economy will begin. Indeed, the magnitude of economic disruption that Covid-19 is likely to exact on the economy was brought into sharp focus this week by the OBR. Their forecast for the second quarter of 2020 warns that GDP may fall by 35%, with 2 million jobs lost. This will present a crucial early test for the new Labour leader who will need to rapidly begin to set out a clear vision for what the future of the state, economy and the world of work would look like under a Labour Government. Given what we know of Starmer’s politics to date, what could this look like?

Strengthening workers’ rights

The Covid-19 crisis has brought into sharp focus various kinds of inequality across the UK - exposing vulnerabilities to economic disruption, such as amongst precarious workers, self-employed workers, low-paid and a-typical workers, many of whom find themselves needing to continue working even where it is not safe to do so. However, this crisis could prove a catalyst for change. There is already some evidence of this in the current public debate, recognising for instance the incongruence between the low pay and status of health and social care workers against the key role they are playing keeping communities safe during the pandemic.

Starmer will no doubt look to build on the ideas outlined by Labour MP Rachel Reeves - now Shadow Chancellor for the Duchy of Lancaster and shadow minister for the Cabinet Office – who in February argued for the re-valuing of roles that are key to the UK’s provision of social goods. In particular, she called for an industrial strategy that focuses on improving wages and productivity in everyday sectors such as care and retail, and proposes setting up new Royal Colleges for social care, to recognise the status and expertise of workers, and give them a role in shaping best practice and improved standards.

Likewise, we can expect Starmer to prioritise pressurising the Government on providing so called ‘gig economy’ workers with greater rights and security at work. Throughout his career, Starmer has championed and actively litigated for unions and workers’ rights, for example during the P&O Seafarers strike in Dover in 1988 and the National Union of Mineworkers vs. The Government in 1992. However, doing so in the current context will require more substantial thinking within the Labour party, recognising that despite a slight increase over the last couple of years, union membership has been in steady decline over the last decades, from 32.2% of the workforce in 1995 to 23% in 2018. The world of work has grown increasingly complex and fragmented since the 80s and early 90s, and there are significant challenges for Starmer and the unions in reversing this trend.

Welfare reform

The new Labour leader is on record wanting to ‘scrap Universal Credit’, and has said that its worst features should be mitigated while its replacement is developed. However, the experience of the UC rollout, with its completion now delayed until 2024, more than a decade after its launch, shows how lengthy and costly designing a whole new welfare system can be. And notwithstanding the flaws in how UC has been implemented, it can be argued that, so far at least, it stands to play an invaluable role in supporting people through the COVID 19 crisis.

It may be that faced with a need to overhaul so many other aspects of public service provision, Starmer chooses instead to return UC to its core purpose, supporting the new system with additional funding and reforming some of the more draconian elements that have made it more difficult for some vulnerable people to access state support.

Boosting local and regional economies

The Labour Party need to reach out to lost voters from constituencies in deindustrialised areas across the Midlands and the North - communities that have been struggling for some time. As in previous recessions, it is likely that they are also the places that will be particularly vulnerable to the longer-term economic contraction that will follow the Covid-19 crisis.

Beyond the short-term economic support these regions will need, a demonstrable strategy as to how the economic decline experienced in such places can be overturned needs to be developed and articulated. Among Starmer’s ten campaign pledges was a commitment to devolve power from Whitehall, launch regional investment banks, and provide areas with control over regional industrial strategy. These commitments may well be a good start in seeking to win back lost support, but it is likely that a more comprehensive plan will be needed - one that is honest about the scale of the challenges some places face, recognises the different roles that cities, towns and rural areas can play in the economy, and the level of support people living in struggling areas will need if their families are to access good, skilled jobs in the future.

Covid-19 is a crisis unlike any this country has experienced in peace-time. Its legacy is set to dominate our politics for the foreseeable future. As with previous crises, the aftermath will present an opportunity for substantial changes to be achieved. The challenge for Starmer so early in his leadership will be to prepare the Labour Party to grasp these opportunities, striking the right balance between championing transformative change and recognising where and how progress can be made most quickly.

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