Good morning!

Since I last wrote, a picture has been emerging of the UK economy and labour market struggling to adapt to the realities of low growth, higher economic inactivity and more insecurity.

This isn’t turning into the positive Monday email I was hoping! But that is the picture facing Jeremy Hunt as he prepares his red box for what will almost certainly be the final Budget Statement of the current Parliament.

In this newsletter, I’m covering some of those challenges whether across the UK or in specific places, like Barnsley.

This week we’ll be sharing the Work Foundation’s reaction to the Spring Budget – until we speak then, I hope you have a good start to the week.

Best wishes,

Ben

Ben Harrison

Director, Work Foundation at Lancaster University

Rising levels of severely insecure work in the UK – especially among women

This Friday marks International Women’s Day 2024 and we have been reflecting on the last year and the people and organisations that have brought new evidence about the structural inequalities many working women face in the UK – especially when we are living in such challenging times.

Our recent release of our UK Insecure Work Index 2024 last week showed that in 2023, an estimated 6.8 million people (21.4%) were in severely insecure work – an increase of 500,000 from 2022. This represents just over one in five workers in the UK – and crucially, 60% of newly insecure workers are women.

Overall women are 2.3 times more likely than men to experience severely insecure work when accounting for other factors.

Speaking at our Work Matters spring Budget 2024 webinar last Wednesday, Women’s Budget Group Deputy Director Dr Zubaida Haque outlined the kinds of policy efforts and interventions she is looking to see in the election debate that would help ensure any growth in the economy is inclusive.

“We need to carry on investing in early years and childcare, the government haven’t fixed that problem yet, she said. “98% of early years and childcare workers are women, and they remain underpaid. Many of them are not getting the national living wage, and that needs to change.

“We should be investing in the social infrastructure, there’s a deafening silence around social care and yet it is one of the biggest crises facing this country at the moment. It’s one of the reasons why women are struggling to participate in the labour market.”

It was a really interesting discussion, and we are grateful for our expert panellists’ contributions. You can watch the full event recording here.

We are grateful to our research and campaigning friends for raising issues around gender equality throughout the year, including: Fawcett Society, Young Women’s Trust, Women’s Budget Group, Runnymede Trust, Working Families, Pregnant then Screwed.

Pathways to work across the country

Last week, I was in Barnsley to discuss how local and regional policymakers can tackle rising levels of economic inactivity, especially due to ill health – an issue which is likely to be front and centre of the Spring Budget later this week.

I’m particularly interested in how the process of returning to or staying in work can be de-risked for people dealing with long term conditions – both through changes to policy and employer practice.

Work Foundation analysis has shown that Barnsley is the hotspot in the South Yorkshire Mayoral Combined Authority for severely insecure work, with one in four people in people in jobs characterised by low pay and a lack of employment rights and protections.

Action to improve job security and remove cliff edges in the welfare system will be key, but local interventions to ensure people can access the range of health and employment support they need will also be crucial.

What to look out for in March

The key moment this month will undoubtedly be this week’s Spring Budget, which is set to be delivered on Wednesday.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt faces a series of big decisions, with the UK economy in recession and 2.8 million people are out of the labour market due to long-sickness – which is one of the highest levels since records began in 1993.

Rumours of further tax cuts have been swirling – which of course will be politically appealing in an election year. But with debt levels continuing to rise and public services under significant strain, the Government’s fiscal room for manoeuvre is limited.

In this context, the focus should remain on generating inclusive economic growth, which means a focus on ensuring that key public services are fit for purpose, that job quality is on the rise and that those out of the labour market have the tailored and long-term support they need to remain in or return to work.

Read my thoughts on the Spring Budget here: The Chancellor is facing big choices with big implications.

Later in the month, we will hear from the Bank of England on whether they stick or twist on interest rates. While the expectation might be that they stick, it will depend on what the labour market and inflation statistics look like from the ONS.

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