Responding to the Chancellor's Autumn Budget announced on 28 October 2026, Ben Harrison, Director of the Work Foundation at Lancaster University said:

“It is welcome that the Chancellor has today introduced additional short-term measures to ease cost of living pressures and set a direction of travel on delivering good growth in every postcode. But this risks being a stopgap Budget. It is likely to fall short of the support workers most vulnerable to rising prices need in 2027 and misses the opportunity to lay more of the fiscal foundations for bigger reforms in the future.

“OBR forecasts suggest cost of living pressures will continue to bite well into 2027, particularly for those on low and insecure incomes. Real household disposable income is expected to grow by just 0.2% in 2027, with inflation expected to hit a quarterly peak of 3.8% next year. This will mean most workers are unlikely to feel better off, despite a 3.9% rise in the National Living Wage and proposals to give a £100 Council Tax rebate to millions of households to support with energy bills this winter.

“It is also uncertain whether the Chancellor has laid the fiscal foundations to deliver on anticipated major reforms to boost employment and drive-up living standards in the years ahead. Based on the measures announced today, the OBR estimates the Government will have just £15 billion of fiscal headroom by 2029 – down £7 billion on 2025 figures. With global instability continuing, this buffer could decrease further due to factors outside of the Chancellor’s control.

“And yet substantial reforms to get more young people into work and deliver a new National Care Service that could enable more unpaid carers to remain in employment are expected to require significant additional investment. And it remains unclear what impact the Timms Review of health-related welfare support will have on future expenditure, and the kind of support disabled people can access to help them into work.

“By deferring so much of the detail of these decisions to the Spending Review next year, it risks undermining the credibility of these commitments. This could further delay the introduction of much needed interventions to support more people into secure and sustainable employment.”