Yet, timely decision-making remains fraught with difficulty: case reports are often incomplete or delayed, and individuals typically only report symptoms several days after infection, meaning that the outbreak picture lags behind the true situation.
This research addresses these challenges by using stochastic dynamical models to improve real-time understanding of outbreaks, providing an accurate evidence base for timely public health decision making. A particular focus is on developing Monte Carlo methods (particularly Markov chain and Sequential Monte Carlo) to calibrate complex, high-dimensional models.
These models enable detailed analysis of how factors such as location, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, age and gender influence infection risk or how routine hygiene practices – such as handwashing and sanitation – affect the spread of antimicrobially-resistant bacteria.
The overarching goal is to translate these advanced statistical and AI methods into usable tools, including software that aids the rapid development of models, simplifies calibration, and lowers the entry barrier for those new to complex outbreak modelling.