A new book by Paul Goodwin, Honorary Visiting Research Fellow at the Centre for Market Analytics and Forecasting, is designed to enable sales forecasters to get the best out of their forecasting software. The book adopts a non-mathematical approach to demystify the methods and measures that are embodied in commercial software products so that forecasters can use their software with confidence and insight. It addresses key practical questions such as:
- What are the advantages and disadvantages of different forecasting methods;
- When, if ever, should management judgment be used to adjust or override a computer’s forecast;
- Should I choose my own forecasting method or let the expert system in the software choose it;
- How should I measure the accuracy of my forecasts;
- How can I use the software to handle product hierarchies or to plan safety stock levels; and
- How much past data do I need to obtain accurate forecasts?
Accessible explanations of measures such as seasonal indices, smoothing coefficients, mean absolute percentage error, and r-squared are provided and the psychological biases that are associated with judgmental interventions in forecasting are fully explored.
Profit from your Forecasting Software. A Best Practice Guide for Sales Forecasters is published by Wiley. Available on Amazon.Back to News