Bayes4Health researchers, Daniela De Angelis, Joshua Blake and Chris Jewell have had their research on methods for inference and forecasting of COVID-19 dynamics published in a special issue of the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B on Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK.

Daniela and Joshua are co-authors of the paper Real-time nowcasting and forecasting of COVID-19 dynamics in England: the first wave, which describes their work on real-time pandemic monitoring that has contributed to the evidence informing the UK government’s management of the pandemic during its first wave.

Chris is co-author of the paper Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV (COVID-19): early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic size estimates that describes methods for estimating the value of the reproductive number, a key summary of the epidemic that describes how quickly cases can increase without any intervention.