Event Details

We consider a dynamic setting in a business context, where a decision variable changes over time. Eventually, the decision variable is fixed.

This poses an important challenge as other entities or businesses may rely on the decision variable, which means that their decisions are also affected if the variable changes dynamically. It is therefore of interest to them to better understand when the decision variable is likely to be fixed (or at least close enough to a fixed value).

In this problem solving day, we are going to explore this topic at the example of planned orders at an automotive company. Order quantities may be adjusted over time, until they eventually become fixed orders. Feedback from the company's aftermarket supply base is that they cannot always rely on the planned orders, which they require to plan their production and procurement of raw materials from their suppliers.

The questions we want to address are:

• How reliable and accurate are the planned orders the automotive company sends to their aftermarket suppliers?
• When are the planned orders (close to) the final, fixed order and how can this reliability be visualised for senior management?
• Can we reliably estimate the variability of planned orders from when the supplier first receives them, until they become fixed orders?