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Focus group on judgmental adjustments

21 December 2017

Members of CMAF attended a focus group on “Effective Use of Forecasting Algorithms” at UCL.

Robert Fildes, Nikolaos Kourentzes and Anna Sroginis visited London to meet with Professor Nigel Harvey (UCL) and Dr Shari De Baets (Ghent University). One of the aims of the study group is to generate a higher profile of judgmental adjustments in forecasting.

At the meeting, Robert Fildes presented on judgmental research in the supply chain context. In a current working paper, he analyses how people react to contextual information when forecasting in the presence of promotions. This talk highlighted the need for broader research on Forecasting Support Systems (FSS) and its combination with human interventions.

Anna Sroginis presented insights from a current experiment on judgmental adjustments and how demand planners deal with qualitative information in the presence of promotions. The preliminary results showed that this contextual information does influence adjustments but people also tend to intervene even if it is not needed.

Moreover, Nigel Harvey discussed the role of algorithms in forecasting focussing on human trust in models and control issues. The presentation of Shari De Baets highlighted her latest laboratory experiments that examine how people behave when making adjustments.

As a result, the group discussed ideas for new laboratory experiments and how to further collaborate with practitioners and software companies. The next meeting is planned for being held in spring with an extended group.

Both, Anna and Roberts slides can be downloaded here.