On 16 June LUCC's Andrew Chubb gave an online talk on simulating future international crises in East Asia. Delivered as part of the Institute for Social Futures' breakfast briefing series, Chubb's talk outlined an experimental methodology designed to identify the role of publicity following a serious incident at sea.

The talk forms part of Chubb's British Academy-funded project, "Domestic Public Opinion and International Escalation: Perceptions and Crisis Control in the Shadow of Networked Nationalism."

Simulating future international crises: the shadow of networked nationalism in China

Andrew Chubb, British Academy Postdoctoral Fellow, Lancaster University

Institute for Social Futures, June 16, 2020

In the internet era, diplomatic crises are likely to be handled by governments acting under some level of scrutiny of domestic audiences. Although authoritarian states such as China have significant capabilities for attenuating public attention and shaping citizens’ interpretations of the situation, there are nonetheless a range of high-stakes scenarios — such as a serious US-China naval clash in disputed waters, or a Taiwanese independence declaration — under which pressure from networked public opinion could make an authoritarian state more likely to escalate a crisis. The talk outlines a “simulation-survey experiment” strategy for assessing the impact of publicity on future international crisis scenarios involving China, and aims to open up a broader discussion of the potential, and limitations (especially validity challenges), for this type of simulation-based research.