Event Details

The Deep War, 2026: Great Power Confrontation and Emerging Hostilities at Sea - Dr Kevin Rowlands

Abstract:

Dr. Kevin Rowlands examines the growing evidence that great power confrontation between the West, Russia, and China is unfolding in world’s oceans. Although formal declarations of war are absent, recent incidents, including seabed infrastructure sabotage, submarine close encounters, aggressive surveillance, "might is right" kinetic attacks, and competing territorial claims, suggest a shift from deterrence to active hostilities not seen in other physical domains.

Drawing on strategic studies, international law, and contemporary naval policy, the lecture will explore how and why the seas are becoming flash points of confrontation. It will consider whether the existing frameworks for crisis management and escalation control are adequate in a domain marked by plausible deniability and rapid technological and geopolitical change.

If hostile acts occur that intentionally degrade national capabilities and economies, threaten critical infrastructure, or risk kinetic escalation, do they constitute a form of war? And if so, what should we do about it?

Bio:

Kevin Rowlands is the Editor of the RUSI Journal. He joined RUSI after four years as the Head of the Royal Navy’s Strategic Studies Centre, an internal Ministry of Defence think tank which aims to inform senior policy and strategy decision makers.

Prior to that appointment, Kevin enjoyed a thirty year naval career, of which twenty were at sea. He was a Warfare Officer and left the navy in the rank of Captain.

At various times he was the Secretary to the Chiefs of Staff Committee and other senior MoD boards and committees, and was the Course Director of the UK’s Advanced Command and Staff Course.

Kevin holds a PhD in War Studies from King's College London and has written numerous books, articles and commentaries on defence and security matters.

He was appointed Professor in Practice at the University of Lancaster in 2025.