The project, funded by the AHRC, is a collaborative initiative between Lancaster University and the University of Amsterdam. It aims to develop a shared framework to understand and analyse ‘Grey Zone warfare’. This is a concept that has emerged since 2014 as one of the key strategic challenges of the 21st century.

The ‘Grey Zone’ lies between peaceful (white) action carried out by a nation and hostile (black) action, which could be seen as an act of war. Hence it can be a nebulous concept. Yet the threat is real. NATO has identified ‘growing global uncertainty, more sophisticated and disruptive cyber and hybrid threats, and exponential technological change’ as significant dangers.

The project aims to provide clarity by characterising ‘Grey Zone Warfare’ in order to develop understanding of the present and most likely future of warfare. Through a cross-chronological approach, interdisciplinary research, and international collaboration, it seeks to inform stakeholders such as policymakers, researchers and the public, while reflecting on strategies to address these increasingly complex threats.

The project held a workshop in late September at the Europe branch of the Royal United Services Insitute (RUSI) in Brussels. RUSI is the world’s oldest and the UK’s leading defence and security think tank. Its mission is to inform, influence and enhance public debate to help build a safer and more stable world.

The workshop was led by the project’s Principal Investigator, Professor Marco Wyss of the CWD, and Co-Investigator Dr Samuël Kruizinga of the University of Amsterdam. The workshop brought together academics and thinkers from across Europe, including His Excellency, the Ambassador of Japan to the EU, senior research fellows from RUSI, representatives from the Institute for National Defence and Security in Taiwan and from EU institutions.

Professor Wyss commented, ‘the workshop was an important development for the Grey Zone project, bringing our innovative work to key actors and opinion formers in international relations and security’.

The next workshop will be held in November at the European Universities’ Institute in Florence, bringing the project’s work to a pan-European audience of defence academics and practitioners.

An edited volume exploring the development of Grey Zone warfare across time and geographies, edited by Professor Wyss and Professor Kruizinga, is planned for publication in mid-2026.

More information on the project can be found on the project webpage.