Event Details

The Deep War, 2026: Great Power Confrontation and Emerging Hostilities at Sea - Dr Kevin Rowlands

Abstract:

Dr. Kevin Rowlands examines the growing evidence that great power confrontation between the West, Russia, and China is unfolding in world’s oceans. Although formal declarations of war are absent, recent incidents, including seabed infrastructure sabotage, submarine close encounters, aggressive surveillance, "might is right" kinetic attacks, and competing territorial claims, suggest a shift from deterrence to active hostilities not seen in other physical domains.

Drawing on strategic studies, international law, and contemporary naval policy, the lecture will explore how and why the seas are becoming flash points of confrontation. It will consider whether the existing frameworks for crisis management and escalation control are adequate in a domain marked by plausible deniability and rapid technological and geopolitical change.

If hostile acts occur that intentionally degrade national capabilities and economies, threaten critical infrastructure, or risk kinetic escalation, do they constitute a form of war? And if so, what should we do about it?

Kevin was the Head of the Royal Navy Strategic Studies Centre. He holds a PhD in War Studies and is a Visiting Professor at King’s College London and a Professor-in-Practice at the University of Lancaster.