How do we address the future of Critical National Infrastructure cyber security? The Interlinked Project explored the forecasts of 22 experts in future CNI security. It identified future trends in CNI software; the resulting changes in cyber security risks; and what we might do to address them.

The Project

This project built on previous work with futurists on the future of software. It focused on new advances in computing technology, to identify possible cyber security issues related to UK Critical National Infrastructure (CNI), from 2024 to 2040. It included a Delphi Study, a literature survey and an in-person workshop.

Project Results

The findings surprised us: as well as the risks we had anticipated related to AI, Quantum, IoT and system complexity, the experts were particularly worried about human errors in responding to cyberattacks and failures. We concluded we are now looking at a new and very vital research problem: Cyber Continuity, the human aspects of surviving attacks and learning from them.

Taking the idea forward, we now have an ideas whitepaper around Cyber Continuity. We are also looking to work with development teams and software system resilience experts in a new project around this.

For the Interlinked project results, please read our paper in the leading journal, Computers and Security: The Human Factor: Addressing Computing Risks for Critical National Infrastructure towards 2040

We have also published the corresponding Delphi Study Research Dataset with the anonymised interviews and survey results. And an earlier version of the results is at our widely-circulated Expert Forecasts - Final Report.

You can also see our paper on Safety, Truth, Ownership, and Accountability for earlier forecasting work from the project team, and a widely-read summary of its findings, The top risks from technology that we’ll be facing by the year 2040 published on The Conversation news platform.

Interested? Please contact Charles, through the link below.