Professor Peter Diggle
Professor EmeritusResearch Overview
My research concerns the development and application of statistical methods relevant to the biomedical and health sciences. In addition to my substantive post in the Lancaster Medical School, I hold a part-time post at the University of Liverpool Department of Epidemiology and Population Health and adjunct appointments at the Johns Hopkins University School of Public Health, Columbia University International Research Institute for Climate and Society, and Yale University School of Public Health. I am a trustee for the Biometrika Trust, a member of the Advisory Board for the journal Biostatistics, chair of the Medical Research Council’s Strategic Skills Fellowship Panel and President-Elect of the Royal Statistical Society.
Current Research
Spatial statistical methods are traditionally classified under three headings: continuous spatial variation; discrete spatial variation; spatial point processes. My current research in this area is aimed at developing a single methodology that can accommodate all three of these settings and enable principled statistical inference for multiple, spatially or spatio-temporally referenced, data-streams irrespective of data-format.
My current research on methods for analysing longitudinal data has two main themes: developing more flexible model-classes for the joint analysis of repeated measurement and time-to-event outcomes; models and methods for real-time analysis of observational data with long-term follow-up.
Both spatial and longitudinal statistical models provide methodological underpinning for the North of England HeRC (Health e-Research Centre), an MRC-funded Manchesterr-led consortium of four universities (Manchester, Lancaster, Liverpool, York) whose remit is to improve public health by developing and applying methods for the more effective exploitation of routinely recorded electronic health records. Current HeRC projects include: early detection of incipient renal failure in primary care patients; forecasting emergency emissions in a large children’s hospital; mapping geographical variation in NHS prescribing rates; real-time surveillance of gastro-enteric infections.
I am working on several public health projects in low-resource settings, where statistical modelling of spatial and temporal variation in disease risk can partly offset the lack of comprehensive registry data. Examples include: leptospirosis in an urban slum setting in northern Brazil; malaria risk mapping in Malawi; meningitis epidemic forecasting in the meningitis belt of sub-Saharan Africa.
Research Interests
Methodological themes include: geostatistical analysis; spatial and spatio-temporal point processes; joint modelling of repeated measurement and time-to-event outcomes in longitudinal studies. Applied themes include: real-time health surveillance; tropical disease prevalence mapping; environmental epidemiology.
Current Teaching
Special Study Modules (Lancaster):
- Dialysis as a Treatment for End-Stage Renal Failure
- Randomised Trials – history and practice
- Bad Science Plus Bad Statistics Equals Bad Medicine
Advanced PhD Training in Statistics (UK nation-wide):
- Spatial and Longitudinal data Analysis
Selected Publications
Statistics and scientific method: an introduction for students and researchers
Diggle, P., Chetwynd, A. 2011 New York : Oxford University Press. 172 p. ISBN: 9780199543199.
Book
Model-based Geostatistics.
Diggle, P.J., Ribeiro, P.J. 03/2007 New York, USA : Springer. 228 p. ISBN: 0387329072 978-0387329079.
Book
Handbook of spatial statistics
Gelfand, A., Diggle, P., Guttorp, P., Fuentes, M. 2010 CRC Press. 619 p. ISBN: 978-1420072877.
Book
Statistical analysis of spatial point patterns.
Diggle, P.J. 2003 London : Edward Arnold. 159 p. ISBN: 0340740701.
Book
Time series: a biostatistical introduction
Diggle, P. 1990 Oxford : Oxford University Press. 257 p. ISBN: 0198522061.
Book
Discrete mathematics.
Chetwynd, A.G., Diggle, P.J. 1995 London : Arnold. 209 p. ISBN: 0340610476.
Book
All Publications
Approximating optimal survey designs in low prevalence environments
01/05/2023 → 31/10/2024
Research
Predictive mapping of STH and schistomsomiasis prevalence in Rwanda
08/12/2022 → 31/12/2022
Research
DSI: secondment to the TMF Wastewater project
01/12/2022 → 31/03/2023
Research
DSI: Independent research leadership and modelling expertise to The Joint Biosecurity Centre (01/04/22 - 30/06/22)
01/04/2022 → 30/06/2022
Research
DSI: NTD Modelling Consortium: informing program decision-making
02/11/2021 → 31/10/2024
Research
Efficient post-elimination surveillance strategies for NTDs
01/11/2021 → 30/04/2024
Research
Predicting STH prevalence with minimal re-mapping
01/10/2021 → 31/03/2023
Research
DSI : Independent research leadership and modelling expertise to The Joint Biosecurity Centre (01/09/21 – 31/03/22)
01/09/2021 → 31/03/2022
Research
DSI: Geostatistical design and analysis of randomised evaluations with a geographic basis
01/09/2021 → 31/08/2024
Research
Predictive Personalized Public Health (P3H): A Novel Paradigm to Treat Infectious Disease - Year 2
01/09/2020 → 31/08/2021
Research
DSI: Independent Research Leadership and Modelling Expertise to the Joint Biosecurity Centre
31/08/2020 → 30/08/2021
Research
DSI: Covid 19: Efficient geostatistical sampling to estimate the fraction of the population recovered from Covid-19
20/08/2020 → 19/11/2020
Research
DSI: Using Geostatistical Tools to Develop a Stop MDA Survey for LF Triple Drug Therapy
10/08/2020 → 30/11/2024
Research
DSI: Covid: Controlling COVID19 through enhanced population surveillance and intervention (Con-COV): a platform approach
01/08/2020 → 31/07/2021
Research
DSI: Design, Modelling and Analysis for Longitudinal Population Studies Involving High-Dimensional Molecular Measurements
01/12/2019 → 30/11/2023
Research
Predictive Personalized Public Health (P3H): A Novel Paradigm to Treat Infectious Disease
01/09/2019 → 31/08/2020
Research
Loa loa prevalence and post-validation surveillance modelling (part III)
23/04/2019 → 30/11/2024
Research
DSI: Data Science of the Natural Environment
16/04/2018 → 15/04/2024
Research
Quantitative analysis and modelling on targets and strategies for alleviating the burden of priority neglected tropical diseases
01/03/2018 → 28/02/2021
Research
Connected Health Cities (DSI)
01/04/2016 → 31/03/2020
Research
ESRC centre for Corpus Approaches to Social Science - CASS
31/03/2013 → 30/03/2018
Research
Web-based Integrated Bipolar Parenting Intervention )IBPI) for Bipolar Parents of Young Children
03/09/2012 → 02/03/2015
Research
Transmission biology of leishmaniasis in Ghana
01/10/2011 → 30/09/2015
Research
National Centre for Research Methods Node Phase 2 Lancaster - Warwick - Stirling
01/10/2008 → 31/03/2012
Research
Fisher Memorial Trust (External organisation)
Membership of committee
Medical Research Council (External organisation)
Membership of committee
Medical Research Council (External organisation)
Membership of committee
The Wellcome Trust (External organisation)
Membership of committee
The Wellcome Trust (External organisation)
Membership of committee
Medical Research Council (External organisation)
Membership of committee
Medical Research Council (External organisation)
Membership of committee
Medical Research Council (External organisation)
Membership of committee
Medical Research Council (External organisation)
Membership of committee
Medical Research Council (External organisation)
Membership of committee
Medical Research Council (External organisation)
Membership of committee
Medical Research Council (External organisation)
Membership of committee
Medical Research Council (External organisation)
Membership of committee
Biometrika Trust (External organisation)
Membership of committee
- CHICAS
- DSI - Health