Professor Brian Francis

Professor of Social Statistics

Research Overview

I am a social statistician with interests in preference models, latent class methods for longitudinal data, mixture models and categorical data problems. Applications are crucial to my work. I primarily research into quantitative criminology -both methodological and substantive problems - focusing on the criminal careers of offenders and social and developmental change. I am also interested in analysing administrative and survey data and am investigating issues related to violence and serious offending, including sexual offending, homicide, trafficking, organised and cyber-crime. Recent work has focused on high frequency victimisation and gender based violence. More broadly I am working on child developmental studies in psychology.

Selected Publications

Missing observations in paired comparison data
Dittrich, R., Francis, B., Hatzinger, R., Katzenbeisser, W. 04/2012 In: Statistical Modelling. 12, 2, p. 117-143. 27 p.
Journal article

A Longitudinal Study of Escalation in Crime Seriousness
Liu, J., Francis, B., Soothill, K. 06/2011 In: Journal of Quantitative Criminology. 27, 2, p. 175-196. 22 p.
Journal article

Do facial expressions develop before birth?
Reissland, N., Francis, B., Mason, J., Lincoln, K. 31/08/2011 In: PLoS ONE. 6, 8, 7 p.
Journal article

Does serious offending lead to homicide?: exploring the interrelationships and sequencing of serious crime.
Soothill, K., Francis, B., Liu, J. 07/2008 In: British Journal of Criminology. 48, 4, p. 522-537. 16 p.
Journal article

Identifying patterns of offending behaviour: a new approach to typologies of crime.
Francis, B.J., Fligelstone, R., Soothill, K. 2004 In: European Journal of Criminology. 1, 1, p. 48-87. 40 p.
Journal article

Modeling heterogeneity in ranked responses by nonparametric maximum likelihood: How do Europeans get their scientific knowledge?
Francis, B., Dittrich, R., Hatzinger, R. 2010 In: Annals of Applied Statistics. 4, 4, p. 2181-2202. 22 p.
Journal article

Criminal Lifestyle Specialization: Female Offending in England and Wales
Francis, B., Liu, J., Soothill, K. 06/2010 In: International Criminal Justice Review. 20, 2, p. 188-204. 17 p.
Journal article

Smoothing group-based trajectory models through B-splines
Francis, B.J., Elliott, A., Weldon, M. 04/2016 In: Journal of Developmental and Life Course Criminology . 2, 1, p. 113-133. 21 p.
Journal article

A latent Markov model for detecting patterns of criminal activity.
Francis, B.J., Bartolucci, F., Pennoni, F. 01/2007 In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A Statistics in Society. 170, 1, p. 115-132. 18 p.
Journal article

Statistical modelling in R
Aitkin, M., Francis, B., Hinde, J., Darnell, R. 2009 Oxford : Oxford University Press. 568 p. ISBN: 0199219133, 9780199219131.

Analysing partial ranks by using smoothed paired comparison methods: an investigation of value orientation in Europe.
Francis, B., Dittrich, R., Hatzinger, R., Penn, R.D. 1/07/2002 In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics). 51, 3, p. 319-336. 18 p.
Journal article

A new approach for ranking crime seriousness : the use of paired comparison methodology.
Francis, B.J., Soothill, K.L., Dittrich, R. 2001 In: British Journal of Criminology. 41, 4, p. 726-737. 12 p.
Journal article

Modelling escalation in crime seriousness: a latent variable approach
Francis, B., Liu, J. 21/08/2015 In: Metron. 73, 2, p. 277-297. 21 p.
Journal article

Is violence increasing or decreasing?: a new methodology to measure repeat attacks making visible the significance of gender and domestic relations
Walby, S., Towers, J., Francis, B. 1/11/2016 In: British Journal of Criminology. 56, 6, p. 1203-1234. 32 p.
Journal article

Can the FIFA world cup football (soccer) tournament be associated with an increase in domestic abuse?
Kirby, S., Francis, B., O'Flahery, R. 08/2014 In: Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency. 51, 3, p. 259-276. 18 p.
Journal article

Breaking the Care-Crime Connection: Learning from Care-Experienced Women in Prison Disrupting the Routes between Care and Custody: Learning from females in the care and criminal justice systems.
01/02/2019 → 31/10/2021

EU: TRAFFDAT - study on the data analysis of trafficking in human beings
11/06/2018 → 10/10/2018

Study on comprehensive policy review of anti-trafficking projects funded by the European Commission
01/01/2016 → 30/09/2019

Trafficking: Study on the gender dimension of trafficking in human beings
31/12/2014 → 30/09/2015

FIRB: Mixture and latent variable model for causal inference and analysis of socio-economic data
01/10/2013 → 30/09/2016

Is the Rate of Domestic Violence Decreasing or Increasing? A Re-Analysis of the British Crime Survey
01/04/2013 → 30/09/2014

Applied Quantitative Methods Network: Phase II
01/01/2013 → 30/06/2017

Overview of the worldwide best practices for rape prevention & assisting women victims of rape
01/11/2012 → 31/10/2014

New models and analyses for social networks and criminological careers
01/03/2012 → 31/12/2016

fEC Code - Criminal Careers Within Organised Crime
01/02/2012 → …

Fetal Movement and Development
01/01/2012 → 30/09/2017

Gender quotas in management boards
01/01/2012 → 31/03/2012

National Centre for Research Methods Node Phase 2 Lancaster - Warwick - Stirling
01/10/2008 → 31/03/2012

Statistics instruction modules for purposeful learning
01/02/2007 → 30/09/2008

Reconviction predictions
01/01/2007 → 15/11/2007

Homicide and the Media
01/01/1997 → …

How can cancer services best meet the psychosocial needs of patients and their main carers?
01/01/1997 → 31/12/2000

Understanding Temporal Changes in Offending Behaviour
01/01/1997 → 31/12/1999

Centre for Crime, Law and Justice

Medical and Social Statistics

  • Medical and Social Statistics
  • Security Lancaster
  • Security Lancaster (Sociology)