Event Details

MARS seminar series. Speaker: Jessica Bridgen (Lancaster) Title: Inference for Epidemic Processes on Networks

Abstract: Understanding how infectious diseases spread through structured populations is essential for outbreak response and prediction. In this talk, I will present methods for inferring latent transmission dynamics from partially observed epidemic data, utilising state-transition models to capture individual-level heterogeneity and higher-order network structure.

Infectious disease outbreaks in clinical settings are a key motivating example. Hospital surveillance typically records when a patient tests positive, but the key events that drive transmission - when infection likely occurred and when they ceased to be infectious - are unobserved. Without estimates of these hidden event times, it is difficult to identify the most likely sources of infection, distinguish competing transmission routes, and prioritise interventions. This incomplete observation process complicates parameter estimation and increases computational demands.

I will illustrate these approaches through case studies with NHS and UKHSA collaborations, demonstrating how scalable inference can inform public health decision-making.