Extreme Value Theory

What's Our Research Expertise?

  • What do floods, heatwaves, hurricanes, and financial crashes have in common? They are all high-impact but low-probability events.
  • Accurate predictions of worst-case scenarios for rare events are used to design and construct protective measures, such as flood defences, and to properly safeguard financial investments.
  • Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is an area of statistics which is used to model data on rare events and predict risk of future events.
  • Researchers at Lancaster have developed innovative statistical models to allow evidence-based decisions to take place.
  • We support various industry sectors, including energy companies, insurance and ecological organisations to save money and work smarter during extreme events, which in turn helps communities and countries when these events happen.
  • Our work has direct impact for organisations (such as the Office for Nuclear Regulation), UK Met Office, Shell, EDF, UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, JBA group, National Oceanographic Centre and the British Geological Society.

What Are We Teaching?

The fourth year module MATH456 Extreme Value Theory module builds on foundational probability (MATH230), statistical inference (MATH330) and statistical modelling (MATH333).

This module will give invaluable experience if you are anyone considering a career in natural hazards modelling, structural engineering, or finance - particularly investment banking and insurance.

Mathematics Making a Difference