A report and toolkit, raising awareness and understanding of the cumulative effects of climate change on maritime (in)security, were recently presented across the whole-of-government at a seminar in London and a workshop at Lancaster University.

Security Lancaster researchers, led by Professor Basil Germond (School of Global Affairs and Co-Director of Security Lancaster), have conceptualized and mapped the cumulative impacts of climate change on maritime (in)security modelling vulnerabilities and risks arising from the effects of climate change and their impacts on the maritime threats landscape.

The report shows that climate change has and will shape the behaviour of actors in the maritime domain, contribute to heightened geopolitical competition over resources alongside strategically important regions, and will require the UK to adapt to changing operational environments with appropriate practices, assets and understandings.

The research-impact project was funded by the QR Policy Support Fund allocated by Research England and supported by the Royal Navy Strategic Studies Centre.

Deliverables include a 100-page report offering evidence-based storylines of the effects to impact pathway chains as well as detailed geographical and functional maps of how climate-driven pressures cascade into impacts on naval assets, operations, interests, as well as on threat-actor behaviour and vulnerable supply chains.

The project’s aim was to generate actionable evidence for maritime security practitioners and policy planners to prioritize resources and interventions where climate-security risks are highest. To that effect, end users have been provided with a process tracer tool to follow the cause-effect chains from climate change drivers to insecurity outcomes.

Professor Basil Germond said: “The cumulative effects of climate change on maritime insecurity are multiplying pressures on already vulnerable ecosystems and on naval assets, personnel and operations. This project is a fantastic opportunity to transform theoretical findings into palatable information that practitioners can use to inform their decisions regarding resources allocation and prioritization of areas for intervention.”

Head of the Royal Navy Strategic Studies Centre Captain Kevin Rowlands PhD said: “I am grateful to Security Lancaster for this superb report and accompanying toolkit. It provides practitioners with the means to better understand and adapt to the world they operate in. This is not an academic flight of fancy – it is a real, practical contribution to national and international security.”

The report will be made available later this year.