In a new study, Alex Heffron, postgraduate researcher within Lancaster Environment Centre, explores how carbon markets, forestry investment, and climate policy are reshaping land ownership, farming livelihoods, and rural communities in Wales, raising important questions about who benefits - and who bears the costs - of the transition to net zero.

When people think of Wales, they think of sheep and rolling hills. And the two have long gone hand in hand, with the country’s hilly landscapes providing ideal conditions for sheep farming. Yet, Welsh agriculture is under pressure. According to the Welsh Government (2024), the average upland grazing farm earns just £22,000 a year, while many farms make a loss from agricultural activity alone. Smaller farms are particularly dependent on government support, with subsidies accounting for more than 100% of their average income. This means Welsh farms are particularly vulnerable to the ongoing changes in agricultural support post-Brexit.

At the same time, as governments pursue net zero targets, landowners are being offered substantial grants to plant trees, while businesses can purchase carbon credits generated from these projects to offset their emissions. For investors, this means that land can generate income in multiple ways; through government support, the sale of carbon credits, timber production, and subsequent increases in land value.

Whilst many Welsh farmers have rallied behind the slogan ‘ewes not yews’ in an effort to protect traditional farming livelihoods and ways of life, government climate policies continue to encourage carbon offsetting. In his paper, entitled ‘Trees devouring sheep: climate rentierism and the financialised land grabbing of Welsh farmland’, Alex argues that these incentives are making relatively low-cost Welsh farmland increasingly attractive to large financial investment companies, which are purchasing the land not primarily for agriculture, but for the financial returns it can generate. This, he suggests, is raising important questions about who stands to benefit from the green transition.

Using London-based investment firm Foresight Group as a case study, the research explores how growing investment in forestry and carbon markets is reshaping patterns of land ownership in rural Wales. Drawing on the company's acquisition of Frongoch Farm in Carmarthenshire -which attracted national attention after Foresight converted productive agricultural land into a commercial non-native conifer plantation for carbon offsetting - the study examines the tensions that can arise when market-based climate policies intersect with local farming livelihoods. The acquisition proved particularly controversial as Foresight outbid local farming families seeking to continue agricultural production on the land, prompting claims of a corporate ‘land grab.’

Alex also investigates the wider cultural implications of converting farmland into carbon offsetting projects, suggesting that the takeover of Welsh rural land by London-based investment firms may affect local employment opportunities and the long-term vitality of Welsh-speaking communities.

As carbon offsetting becomes an increasingly central component of both corporate net zero strategies and government approaches to tackling climate change, Alex suggests that investment companies are likely to play a growing role in the Welsh countryside. Having been a farmer in Wales before becoming a researcher and activist, Alex is deeply worried about these changes. His research, then, aims to contribute to wider discussions around environmental justice by highlighting the experiences of local Welsh rural communities. As Alex said:

“One of the lessons from my research is that it matters who leads efforts towards green transitions. When it is led by finance companies, headquartered far away and motivated by a financial return for investors, it might look different to when they are led by local communities.”

While the research recognises the importance of climate action, it argues that how the green transition is delivered matters just as much as the environmental outcomes it achieves. Alex concludes that Wales has a vital role to play in climate change mitigation but argues that the future of the Welsh countryside cannot be reduced to a simple choice between sheep and trees. Instead, it is a question of who owns the land, who makes decisions about its future, and who ultimately benefits from the transition to a net zero economy.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/03066150.2026.2689572