Event Details

Marcel van Oijen - Bayesian methods for spatiotemporal modelling in environmental science

Good modelling practice requires that possible errors in model inputs or structure are identified. However, errors cannot be quantified directly, making uncertainty inevitable. In this talk, I discuss the confusing terminology around the concepts of error and uncertainty, and review current methods for addressing uncertainty in environmental and ecological modelling. These methods are based on the recognition that all uncertainties – in calibration data, model inputs and model structure – can be represented using probability distributions. This has stimulated the use of Bayesian methods for ecosystem and biogeochemistry models. The Achilles’ heel of Bayesian methods has always been their computational demand, but solutions are being found. The talk will show some examples of these methods in action.