CMAF presents at ISMS 2018

Conference 2018

The 40th INFORMS Marketing Science conference took place at Temple University in Philadelphia. Three members from the Centre for Marketing Analytics and Forecasting were also presenting their latest research:

Florian Dost contributed to the session of multi-channel marketing by investigating interrelated visits and sales in an omnichannel system. He and his co-authors propose a non-linear dynamic model and assess the interactions between the different sales channels of a fashion retailer. One of their key findings is that not all possible relationships between channel variables are relevant. For example, online and mobile visits do not influence each other. Furthermore, not all channels interact synergistically. Download Florian's slides for more information.

In the session for analysis of markets, Ivan Svetunkov presented his ongoing research on the topic of modelling and forecasting the dynamics of mobile device market shares. He and his colleagues investigated the dynamic market interactions between major competitors. These days consumers tend to base their purchase decision not solely on the brand loyalty towards a manufacturer but also on the familiarity with the software platform. For example, consumers owning Apple iPhones are more likely to also buy an Apple iPad due to the familiarities with the operating system. These connections between the devices create new patterns in the dynamics of market shares, and the proposed model captures the dynamics of ecosystems to see when such an ecosystem starts exhibiting monopolistic behaviour. Download Ivan's slides for more information.

Finally, doctoral student Oliver Schaer gave a talk at the session of new products and adoption of using clustered search traffic profiles to predict pre-launch sales of video games. In contrast to existing methods which solely build on regression of historical sales, the two-stage approach with clustering and classifying methods has the advantage that not only does it provide better forecasting results but it might also allow assessing homogenous competitor products. Oliver also presented his research topic as a lightning talk during the ISMS doctoral consortium. Download Oliver's slides for more information.

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