Honorary researcher publishes new guide to prediction

23 October 2017 12:50
Crystal Ball

The book, “Forewarned: A Sceptic’s Guide to Prediction”, is published by Biteback and covers the many roles that forecasting plays in our daily lives, including sports predictions, weather forecasts, election forecasts, economic forecasts, sales forecasts and our own predictions about our personal futures.

The book looks at when our intuitive judgments can outperform computer predictions, but also identifies when our intuition can seriously mislead us. It explores how to get the most accurate predictions from groups of people, and tells you when you should be wary of experts’ predictions or those produced by forecasters who have political motives. Drawing on the latest research, it contains many fascinating anecdotes of forecasting successes and disasters.

At CMAF we think that the book offers a very accessible source of information that raises the awareness of the process behind predictions. It is a particularly useful read for someone in a managerial role facing decisions about forecasts, but anyone else with a general interest in forecasting will enjoy the book.

The Irish Times said “The book is awash with entertaining examples of predictions that were astoundingly accurate and others that were spectacularly wrong.” and the Engineering and Technology magazine wrote: “‘Forewarned’ is one of those books that will leave you far better informed than you were before you picked it up. A perfect Christmas present for the engineer in your household.”

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